Contents

Foreword vi
Acknowledgements viii
Abbreviations and acronyms x

PART I
Livestock in the balance 1
1. Livestock in the balance 3
Livestock sector change 5
Structure of the report and key messages 7
2. Change in the livestock sector 9
Consumption trends and drivers 9
Production trends and drivers 13
Trade trends and drivers 19
Outlook for consumption, production and trade 22
Livestock sector diversity 25
Transformation of livestock systems 27
Challenges from continued livestock sector growth 30
Key messages of the chapter 31
3. Livestock, food security and poverty reduction 32
Livestock and livelihoods 33
Livestock and food security 38
Livestock sector transformation and the poor 42
Livestock and poverty alleviation 43
Competitiveness and the livestock sector 46
Livestock policies for sector transition 50
Key messages of the chapter 52
4. Livestock and the environment 53
Livestock production systems and ecosystems 53
Livestock and climate change 63
Improving natural-resource use by livestock production 66
Dealing with climate change and livestock 70
Key messages of the chapter 74
5. Livestock and human and animal health 75
Economic and human-health threats related to livestock disease 76
Disease control and risk management 86
Key messages of the chapter 93
6. Conclusions: balancing society’s objectives for livestock 94
Balancing opportunities against risks 94
Balancing the needs of different smallholders 94
Balancing food security and nutrition 95
Balancing the trade-offs among systems, species, goals and impacts 96
Balancing objectives in different societies 96
The way forward: towards an agenda for action for the livestock sector 97
Key messages of the report 98

PART II
World food and agriculture in review 101
Trends in global food security 104
Agricultural price developments . high variability of basic food prices 105
Domestic food prices in developing countries 107
Medium-term prospects for international agricultural commodity prices 107
Agricultural production 109
Agricultural trade 111
Policy responses to higher food prices and their impact on agricultural markets 113
Impact of policy responses on global markets 118
Conclusions 119

PART III
Statistical annex 123
Table A1 Production of livestock products, 1995.2007 125
Table A2 Production of main categories of meat, 1995.2007 130
Table A3 Per capita consumption of livestock products, 1995.2005 135
Table A4 Per capita calorie intake from livestock products, 1995.2005 140
Table A5 Per capita protein intake from livestock products, 1995.2005 145
Table A6 Trade in livestock products, 1995.2006 150

References 157
Special chapters of The State of Food and Agriculture 165

TABLES
1. Per capita consumption of livestock products by region, country group and country, 1980 and 2005 11
2. Urbanization: levels and growth rates 13
3. Production of livestock products by region, 1980 and 2007 15
4. Production of main categories of meat by region, 1987 and 2007 16
5. Global trade in livestock products, 1980 and 2006 21
6. Meat consumption by region, 2000 and 2050 (projected) 24
7. Global livestock population and production, by production system, average 2001.2003 26
8. Use of feed concentrate by region, 1980 and 2005 29
9. Use of feed concentrate by commodity group, 2005 30
10. Number and location of poor livestock keepers by category and agro-ecological zone 33
11. Percentage of rural households owning livestock, share of income from livestock and number of livestock per household, by country 34
12. Land use by region and country group, 1961, 1991 and 2007 55
13. Major environmental impacts of different production systems 62
14. Direct and indirect impacts of climate change on livestock production systems 66
15. Some estimated costs of disease in developed and developing countries 78
16. Some estimated costs of food-borne illness in developed countries 79

BOXES
1. Measuring productivity growth in the livestock sector 18
2. Technological progress in the poultry industry 20
3. Coordination in livestock value chains 28
4. Food versus feed: do livestock reduce availability of food for human consumption? 39
5. The Dairy Goat Development Project in Ethiopia 41
6. Sector transition . poultry in China 44
7. Sector transition . dairy in India and Kenya 46
8. The livestock sector . why supply-side factors matter 48
9. Kuroiler. chickens . linking backyard poultry systems to the private sector 50
10. Expansion of biofuels production 54
11. Conserving animal genetic resources 58
12. Assessing the contribution of livestock to GHG emissions 64
13. The European Union . integrating environmental protection requirements into the Common Agricultural Policy 68
14. Reducing nitrate pollution in Denmark 70
15. Tapping the climate change mitigation potential of improved land management in livestock systems 72
16. Animal health and welfare 80
17. Global Rinderpest Eradication Programme (GREP) . elements of a success 88
18. One World, One Health 91
19. Food emergencies 105
20. Domestic food prices in developing countries remain high 110
21. A return to high agricultural commodity prices? 112

FIGURES
1. Per capita consumption of major food items in developing countries, 1961.2005 9
2. Per capita intake of energy derived from livestock products by region, 1961.2005 10
3. Per capita GDP and meat consumption by country, 2005 12
4 Production of meat, eggs and milk by developing country region, 1961.2007 14
5. World production of main categories of meat, 1961.2007 16
6. Sources of growth in livestock production: average annual growth in number of animals and in output per animal, 1980.2007 17
7. Value of livestock products as a share of global agricultural export value, 1961.2006 21
8. Net exports of meat and dairy products from developed and developing countries, 1961.2006 22
9. Meat consumption and share of net imports in consumption, least-developed countries, 1961.2005 23
10. Classification of livestock production systems 25
11. Percentage of rural households owning livestock, by expenditure quintile 35
12. Share of income from livestock activity in rural households, by expenditure quintile 36
13. Number of livestock held by rural households, by expenditure quintile 37
14. Percentage of households’ total livestock production that is sold, by expenditure quintile 38
15. Impacts of animal diseases on human well-being 76
16. Balancing policy objectives 97
17. FAO estimates of number of undernourished people in 2009, by region 104
18. Indices of agricultural prices 106
19. Consumer food price inflation 2007.2009, selected countries 108
20. Real cereal prices 109
21. Growth in agricultural production, by region 114
22. Long-term trends in agricultural production, by region 115
23. Changes in global real food commodity exports 115
24. Changes in real food commodity net trade, by region 116
25. Estimated impact of production, consumption, stock and border measures on rice and wheat markets 120

Foreword

This year’s report of The State of Food and Agriculture is being published at a crucial point in time. The world is going through a financial turbulence that has led to a serious economic setback. But this must not mask the global food crisis that has shaken the international agricultural economy and proven the fragility of the global agricultural system.

Unfortunately, today increasing hunger is a global phenomenon and no part of the world is immune. Our estimates show that the number of those suffering from chronic hunger in the world has topped one billion in 2009 . one billion and 20 million to be more precise. The challenge that lies ahead is to secure the food security of these one billion hungry people and also to double food production in order to feed a population projected to reach 9.2 billion by 2050.

At the global level, recognition has been growing that agricultural development is crucial if we are to reverse this trend and start making significant and sustainable progress towards lifting millions of people out of poverty and food insecurity. This recognition is increasingly finding expression at the highest political levels.

However, the global food and agriculture sector is facing several challenges, including demographic and dietary changes, climate change, bioenergy development and natural-resource constraints. These and related forces are also driving structural changes in the livestock sector, which has
developed as one of the most dynamic parts of the agricultural economy.

The global livestock sector has been undergoing change at an unprecedented pace over the past few decades, a process that has been termed the “livestock revolution”. Booming demand in the world’s most rapidly growing economies for food derived from animals has led to large
increases in livestock production, supported by major technological innovations and structural changes in the sector. This surging demand has been mostly met by commercial livestock production and associated food chains. At the same time, millions of rural people still keep livestock in traditional production systems, where they support livelihoods and household food security.

The rapid transition of the livestock sector has been taking place in an institutional void. The speed of change has often significantly outpaced the capacity of governments and societies to provide the necessary policy and regulatory framework to ensure an appropriate balance between the provision of private and public goods. A number of issues are confronting the sector:

• There is increasing pressure on ecosystems and natural resources - land, water and biodiversity. The livestock sector is only one of many sectors and human activities contributing to the pressure. In some cases its impact on ecosystems is out of proportion with the economic significance of the sector. At the same time, the sector is increasingly facing natural-resource constraints and growing competition with other sectors for a number of resources. Awareness is also increasing of the interactions between livestock and climate change, with the livestock sector both contributing to it and suffering from its impacts. Conversely, it is also being recognized that the sector can play a key role in mitigating climate change through adoption of improved technologies.
• The globalization of food systems has meant an increasing flow of technology, capital, people and goods, including live animals and products of animal origin, around the world. Increased trade flows, along with the growing concentration of animals, often in proximity to large human populations, have contributed to increased risks of spreading of animal diseases and to a rise in animal-related human health risks globally. At the same time, inadequate access to veterinary services jeopardizes the livelihoods and development prospects of many poor livestock holders throughout the developing world.
• A final critical issue relates to the social implications of the structural changes in the sector and the role of poor people in the process. How can the livestock sector contribute more effectively to alleviating poverty and ensuring food security for all? Has the rapid development of the sector in many countries benefited smallholders, or are they being increasingly marginalized? If so, is this inevitable, or can the poor
  be brought into the process of livestock development?

Within each of these three areas, the report discusses the most critical challenges and opportunities facing the sector. It highlights systemic risks and failures resulting from a process of growth and transformation that has outpaced the bcapacity and willingness of governments and societies to control and regulate. It tries to identify issues that require solutions at various levels to allow the livestock sector to meet society’s expectations in the future in terms of provision of both private and public goods. The issue of governance is central. Identifying and defining the appropriate role of government, in its broadest sense, is the cornerstone on which future development of the livestock sector must build.

The challenges posed by the livestock sector cannot be solved by a single string of actions or by individual actors alone. They require integrated efforts by a wide range of stakeholders. Such efforts need to tackle the root causes in areas where the social, environmental and health impacts of the livestock sector and its rapid development are negative. They must also be realistic and equitable. By focusing our attention constructively, we can move towards a more responsible livestock sector, allowing it to meet the multiple, often competing, objectives of society. It is my hope that this report can contribute towards the first important steps in this direction.

Jacques Diouf
FAO DIRECTOR-GENERAL