『Abstract
A projection of future energy consumption is a vital input to
many analyses of economic, energy, and environmental policies.
We provide a benchmark projection which can be used to evaluate
any other projection. Specifically, we base our projection of
future energy consumption on its historical trend, which can be
identified by an experience model. We compare our projection with
forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
for right countries - U.S., China, India, Brazil, Japan, South
Korea, Canada and Mexico. We find that the EIA's projections are
lower than ours in the case of China, the U.S., India, Japan,
and Mexico. This indicates that for these five countries, the
EIA uses assumptions which cannot be rationalized by historical
data.
Keywords: Energy consumption; Experience model; Energy intensity』
1. Introduction
2. Background information
2.1. Overview of the IEO 2010 report
2.2. A brief history of the experience curve model: classical
vs. kinked experience models
3. Data and methodology
3.1. Data
3.2. Methodology
4. Results
4.1. Classical vs. kinked experience models of energy intensity
4.2. Our projection vs. IEO projection on energy consumption
5. Discussion and conclusion
Acknowledgments
Appendix A
Appendix B
References