Chang,Y., Lee,J. and Yoon,H.(2012): Alternative projection of the world energy consumption-in comparison with the 2010 international energy outlook. Energy Policy, 50, 154-160.


 A projection of future energy consumption is a vital input to many analyses of economic, energy, and environmental policies. We provide a benchmark projection which can be used to evaluate any other projection. Specifically, we base our projection of future energy consumption on its historical trend, which can be identified by an experience model. We compare our projection with forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for right countries - U.S., China, India, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Canada and Mexico. We find that the EIA's projections are lower than ours in the case of China, the U.S., India, Japan, and Mexico. This indicates that for these five countries, the EIA uses assumptions which cannot be rationalized by historical data.

Keywords: Energy consumption; Experience model; Energy intensity』

1. Introduction
2. Background information
 2.1. Overview of the IEO 2010 report
 2.2. A brief history of the experience curve model: classical vs. kinked experience models
3. Data and methodology
 3.1. Data
 3.2. Methodology
4. Results
 4.1. Classical vs. kinked experience models of energy intensity
 4.2. Our projection vs. IEO projection on energy consumption
5. Discussion and conclusion
Appendix A
Appendix B