『Abstract
　The world is interconnected and powered by a number of global energy systems using fossil, nuclear, or renewable energy. This study reviews historical time series of energy production and growth for various energy sources. It compiles a theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding the behaviour underlying global energy systems' growth. The most extreme growth rates are found in fossil fuels. The presence of scaling behaviour, i.e. proportionality between growth rate and size, is established. The findings are used to investigate the consistency of several long-range scenarios expecting rapid growth for future energy systems. The validity of such projections is questioned, based on past experience. Finally, it is found that even if new energy systems undergo a rapid ‘oil boom’-development - i.e. they mimic the most extreme historical events - their contribution to global energy supply by 2050 will be marginal.

Key Words: global energy systems; growth rates; energy forecasting; scenarios; long-term forecasting; evaluating forecasts.』

Introduction
　Data considerations and statistical sources
Net energy production fundamentals
Historical development of global energy systems
　Oil, gas and coal
　Biomass, nuclear and hydropower
　EROEI and growth rates
Growth rate analysis
　Empirical considerations
Assumed growth patterns in other studies
　Example 1, Shell energy scenarios
　Example 2, Scenarios focused on meeting climate policy
Future outlooks based on analogies
Conclusions
Acknowledgments
References