Hook(両方のoの頭に¨),M., Li,J., Johansson,K. and Snowden,S.(2012): Growth rates of global energy systems and future outlooks. Natural Resources Research, 21(1), 23-41.


 The world is interconnected and powered by a number of global energy systems using fossil, nuclear, or renewable energy. This study reviews historical time series of energy production and growth for various energy sources. It compiles a theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding the behaviour underlying global energy systems' growth. The most extreme growth rates are found in fossil fuels. The presence of scaling behaviour, i.e. proportionality between growth rate and size, is established. The findings are used to investigate the consistency of several long-range scenarios expecting rapid growth for future energy systems. The validity of such projections is questioned, based on past experience. Finally, it is found that even if new energy systems undergo a rapid ‘oil boom’-development - i.e. they mimic the most extreme historical events - their contribution to global energy supply by 2050 will be marginal.

Key Words: global energy systems; growth rates; energy forecasting; scenarios; long-term forecasting; evaluating forecasts.』

 Data considerations and statistical sources
Net energy production fundamentals
Historical development of global energy systems
 Oil, gas and coal
 Biomass, nuclear and hydropower
 EROEI and growth rates
Growth rate analysis
 Empirical considerations
Assumed growth patterns in other studies
 Example 1, Shell energy scenarios
 Example 2, Scenarios focused on meeting climate policy
Future outlooks based on analogies