『Abstract
This study reviews a variety of growth curve models and the theoretical
frameworks that lay behind them. In many systems, growth patterns
are, or must, ultimately be subjected to some form of limitation.
A number of curve models have been developed to describe and predict
such behaviours. Symmetric growth curves have frequently been
used for forecasting fossil fuel production, but others have expressed
a need for more flexible and asymmetric models. A number of examples
show differences and applications of various growth curve models.
It is concluded that these growth curve models can be utilised
as forecasting tools, but they do not necessarily provide better
predictions than any other method. Consequently, growth curve
models and other forecasting methods should be used together to
provide a triangulated forecast. Furthermore, the growth curve
methodology offers a simple tool for resource management to determine
what might happen to future production if resource availability
poses a problem. In the light of peak oil and the awareness of
natural resources being considered as a basis for the continued
well-being of the society and the mankind, resource management
should be treated as an important factor in future social planning.
Key words: Growth curve models; curve fitting; logistic model;
resource management』
Introduction
Aim of this study
Theoretical background
General growth modes
Unbounded growth
Bounded growth
Bell-shaped growth
Examples of growth curves
Applications of growth curves
Concluding discussion
Acknowledgments
References
Hook(両方のoの頭に¨) et al.(2011)による『Descriptive and predictive growth curves in energy system analysis』から Richardsの式の±は-が上で+が下。 |