Energy Resources 2009　　http://www.bgr.bund.de/cln_116/nn_335082/EN/Themen/Energie/Produkte/energyresources__2009.html?__nnn=true

0 Preface by the President of the BGR ................. 3
1 The Availability of Energy Resources - An Overview 11
　1.1 References on the Availability of Energy Resources - An Overview ... 16
2 Energy Resources - Definitions and Classifications 17
　2.1 Energy Resources of the Earth ..................................................... 17
　2.2 From the Occurrence of Energy Resources to Mineral Deposits ......... 18
　2.3 Classifi cation of Energy Resources by Types ................................... 18
　　2.3.1 Conventional and Unconventional Oil ............................................ 19
　　2.3.2 Conventional and Unconventional Natural Gas ................................ 20
　　2.3.3 Classifi cation of Coal .................................................................. 20
　　2.3.4 Conventional and Unconventional Uranium .....................................22
　2.4 Reserve Classifi cation of the Energy Resources .............................. 22
　　2.4.1 The Quantifi cation of Resources ................................................... 22
　　2.4.2 BGR-Defi nition of Reserves .......................................................... 23
　　2.4.3 Other Classifi cation Systems for Energy Resources ......................... 24
　2.5. Resources Classifi cation for Geothermal Energy .............................. 28
　2.6 Data Sources of the BGR-Statistics ............................................... 28
　2.7 References on Energy Resources - Defi nitions and Classifi cations ...... 29
3 Crude Oil .................................................. 31
　3.1 From Deposit to Consumer .......................................................... 31
　3.2 Conventional Oil ........................................................................ 32
　　3.2.1 EUR of Crude Oil and its Regional Distribution ................................ 32
　　3.2.2 Crude Oil Reserves ..................................................................... 35
　　3.2.3 Crude Oil Resources ................................................................... 40
　　3.2.4 Crude Oil Production ................................................................... 42
　　3.2.5 Costs of Petroleum Extraction ...................................................... 44
　　3.2.6 Oil Consumption ........................................................................ 46
　　3.2.7 Crude Oil Transport and Trade ...................................................... 48
　　3.2.8 Crude Oil Prices ......................................................................... 49
　3.3 Unconventional Oil ..................................................................... 54
　　3.3.1 Oil Sands - High-Viscosity Oil in Sandstone .................................... 54
　　3.3.2 Extra-Heavy Oil ......................................................................... 60
　　3.3.3 Oil Shale - Petroleum still to be Generated .................................... 63
　3.4 References on Crude Oil .............................................................. 67
4 Natural Gas ............................................... 69
　4.1 From Natural Gas Deposit to Consumption .................................... 69
　4.2 Conventional Natural Gas ............................................................ 70
　　4.2.1 Total EUR of Natural Gas and its Regional Distribution ..................... 70
　　4.2.2 Natural Gas Reserves ................................................................. 73
　　4.2.3 Natural Gas Resources ................................................................ 75
　　4.2.4 Natural Gas Production ............................................................... 77
　　4.2.5 Consumption of Natural Gas ........................................................ 80
　　4.2.6 Transport of Natural Gas ............................................................. 81
　　4.2.7 Trade of Natural Gas and Regional Markets .................................... 83
　　4.2.8 European Natural Gas Market ...................................................... 86
　　4.2.9 Natural Gas Prices ...................................................................... 88
　4.3 Unconventional Natural Gas ......................................................... 90
　　4.3.1 Tight and Shale Gas ................................................................... 90
　　4.3.2 Coalbed Natural Gas ................................................................... 94
　　4.3.3 Natural Gas in Aquifers - Renaissance with Geothermal Energy? ....... 99
　　4.3.4 Gas Hydrate - the .Frozen Natural Gas“ ...................................... 103
　4.4 References on Natural Gas ........................................................ 109
5 Coal ........................................................ 113
　5.1 Fossil Plant Residue with High Energy Potential ............................ 113
　　5.1.1 Coal Formation ........................................................................ 113
　　5.1.2 Composition and Characteristics of Coal ...................................... 114
　　5.1.3 Which Type of Coal for which Use? ............................................. 115
　　5.1.4 Coal as Global Power Source ...................................................... 116
　5.2 Hard Coal ............................................................................... 116
　　5.2.1 Total Resources of Hard Coal and Regional Distribution .................. 116
　　5.2.2 Hard Coal Reserves .................................................................. 118
　　5.2.3 Hard Coal Resources ................................................................ 118
　　5.2.4 Hard Coal Production ................................................................ 119
　　5.2.5 Hard Coal Consumption ............................................................ 129
　　5.2.6 Production and Consumption of Coke .......................................... 131
　　5.2.7 Hard Coal Transportation ........................................................... 132
　　5.2.8 World Market for Hard Coal ....................................................... 134
　　5.2.9 Hard Coal Prices ...................................................................... 140
　5.3 Lignite .................................................................................... 142
　　5.3.1 Total Resources of Lignite, Regional Distribution ........................... 142
　　5.3.2 Lignite Reserves ...................................................................... 144
　　5.3.3 Lignite Resources ..................................................................... 145
　　5.3.4 Lignite Production .................................................................... 145
　　5.3.5 Lignite Consumption ................................................................. 149
　　5.3.6 Lignite Trade ........................................................................... 150
　5.4 References on Coal ................................................................... 151
6 Nuclear Fuels ............................................ 153
　6.1 Uranium ................................................................................. 153
　　6.1.1 Uranium Occurances ................................................................. 153
　　6.1.2 Total Potential of Uranium, Hostorical Development ...................... 154
　　6.1.3 Uranium Reserves .................................................................... 157
　　6.1.4 Uranium Resources .................................................................. 158
　　6.1.5 Additional Uranium Stocks ......................................................... 160
　　6.1.6 Uranium Production .................................................................. 161
　　6.1.7 Uranium Consumption .............................................................. 164
　　6.1.8 Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Trade ..................................................... 166
　　6.1.9 Uranium Prices ........................................................................ 167
　6.2 Thorium .................................................................................. 168
　　6.2.1 Thorium as Nuclear Fuel ........................................................... 168
　　6.2.2 Supply of Thorium .................................................................... 168
　　6.2.3 Production and Consumption of Thorium ..................................... 168
　6.3 References on Nuclear Fuel ....................................................... 169
7 Geothermal Energy .................................... 171
　7.1 Heat from the Earth for Usage as Energy .................................... 171
　7.2 Sources of Geothermal Energy ................................................... 173
　　7.2.1 Near-surface Substratum .......................................................... 173
　　7.2.2 Hdrothermal Occurrences of Low Temperatures ............................ 173
　　7.2.3 Hydrothermal Occurrences of High Temperatures ......................... 174
　　7.2.4 Hot-Dry-Rock Occurrences ........................................................ 175
　7.3 Geothermal Resources .............................................................. 175
　　7.3.1 Quantitative Analysis of Geothermal Resources ............................ 175
　　7.3.2 Global Usage of the Geothermal Energy ...................................... 177
　　7.3.3 Regional Distribution of Used Occurrences ................................... 179
　7.4 References on Geoghermal Energy ............................................. 187
8 Energy Resources in Germany ..................... 189
　8.1 Petroleum in Germany .............................................................. 189
　　8.1.1 Petroleum Deposits and Production History .................................. 189
　　8.1.2 Petroleum Production and Consumption in 2007 ........................... 191
　　8.1.3 Petroleum Reserves and Resources ............................................. 192
　　8.1.4 Germany´s Supply with Petroleum ............................................. 193
　　8.1.5 Unconventional Oil ................................................................... 194
　8.2 Natural Gas in Germany ............................................................ 195
　　8.2.1 Natural Gas Deposits and Production History ............................... 195
　　8.2.2 Natural Gas Production and Consumption in 2007 ......................... 198
　　8.2.3 Natural Gas Reserves and Resources .......................................... 198
　　8.2.4 Germany´s Supply with Natural Gas ........................................... 199
　　8.2.5 Unconventional Natural Gas ....................................................... 200
　8.3 Coal in Germany ...................................................................... 202
　　8.3.1 Coal Deposits and Production History .......................................... 202
　　8.3.2 Coal Production and Consumption in 2007 ................................... 205
　　8.3.3 Coal Reserves and Resources ..................................................... 206
　　8.3.4 Germany´s Supply with Coal ..................................................... 206
　8.4 Cross-border Prices of Fossil Fuels .............................................. 207
　8.5 Nuclear Fuels in Germany ......................................................... 210
　　8.5.1 Uranium Deposits and Production History .................................... 210
　　8.5.2 Uranium Production and Consumption in 2007 ............................. 211
　　8.5.3 Uranium Reserves and Resources ............................................... 212
　　8.5.4 Germany´s Supply with Nuclear Fuels ........................................ 212
　　8.5.5 Remediation of Uranium Mines ................................................... 213
　8.6 Geothermal Energy in Germany ................................................. 213
　　8.6.1 Geothermal Energy Resources ................................................... 213
　　8.6.2 Near-surface Geothermal Energy ............................................... 214
　　8.6.3 Hydrothermal Resources ........................................................... 215
　　8.6.4 Hot-Dry-Rock-Resources ........................................................... 217
　　8.6.5 The Future of Geothermal Energy in Germany .............................. 220
　8.7 The Supply of Germany with Energy Commodities ........................ 221
　　8.7.1 Petroleum Supplier Countries ..................................................... 221
　　8.7.2 Natural Gas Supplier Countries .................................................. 223
　　8.7.3 Coal Supplier Countries ............................................................. 224
　8.8 References on Energy Resources in Germany ............................... 225
9 Availability of Energy Resources ................... 229
　9.1 The Dynamics of Exhausting Finite Resources .............................. 229
　　9.1.1 Static Reach ............................................................................ 229
　　9.1.2 Peak Oil .................................................................................. 230
　　9.1.3 Availability .............................................................................. 231
　9.2 Availability of Geothermal Energy ............................................... 235
　9.3 Availability of Uranium .............................................................. 237
　9.4 Availability of Coal .................................................................... 240
　9.5 Availability of Natural Gas ......................................................... 242
　9.6 Availability of Oil ...................................................................... 244
　　9.6.1 Geological Availability of Oil ....................................................... 244
　　9.6.2 Future Potential of Oil ............................................................... 246
　　9.6.3 The Future Development of Oil Production ................................... 250
　9.7 Energy Resources 2030, 2050 ................................................... 253
　9.8 References on the Availability of Energy Resources ....................... 255

10 Glossary ...................................................... 257

Regional Definitions and Country Groupings ................................. 267
Natural Gas Markets ................................................................. 270
Unit of Measurement ................................................................ 271
Conversion Factors ................................................................... 273
Stratigraphic Table .................................................................... 274

Index of Info Boxes
i1 International vs. National State Oil and Gas Companies .................. 41
i2 EOR . How much Petroleum in a Reservoir can be Actually Produced? ..................................................................... 61
i3 Associated Gas . Unused Potential ............................................... 79
i4 Will There Be a Natural Gas Cartel Analog to OPEC? ........................ 84
i5 Shallow Gas - Danger or Potential Raw Material? ............................ 97
i6 Possible Environmental Effects on the Use of Gas Hydrate ............. 108
i7 CO2 from Burning Coal, Potential for Germany ............................. 122
i8 Coal Liquefaction - An Alternative to petroleum? .......................... 136
i9 Coal fi res - Destruction of Resources and Environmental Protection . 139
i10 GEOTHERM - Technical Cooperation in Geothermal Energy ............. 183
i11 GeneSys - Heat Generation Using Single Borehole Method ............. 218

Preface by the President of the BGR

Germany is an energy dependant country. The industrial revolution in Germany relied as early as in the middle of the 19th century on energy from hard coal. Also the fi rst oil discoveries in our country can be dated back to that time: When, in the year 1859, Prof. Georg Hunaus searched for coal in Wietze north of Hannover, one borehole struck oil at a depth of 36 m. Therefore, today, in the year 2009, we celebrate 150 years of oil in Germany! For a start, in this country the big oil boom failed to appear. Not before the end of World War II domestic crude oil and natural gas became important components of our energy supply and have remained so to this day.

Presently, Germany is world leader in the usage of soft brown coal, concerning the quantity of produced lignite as well as power plant technology. Germany holds a cuttingedge position in the development of the environmentally and climate friendly CCS technology (CCS, Carbon Capture
and Storage) which focuses on the minimizing of carbon dioxide emissions, especially in coal-based power generation.

By now, renewable energy sources are inseparable components of our energy mix and they will gain further importance. For the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) the use of geothermal energy is of special importance. Here, one-borehole concepts, like they are just being tested with the pilot project GeneSys in the Geozentrum Hannover could lead to a breakthrough for the broad use of deep geothermal energy.

Also in the future, energy will defi ne our economy and our lives altogether. During the past decades, growing energy demand and the increasing exhaustion of the domestic reserves of crude oil and natural gas have turned Germany more and more into an import country for energy resources. This development was accompanied, especially in recent years, by major fl uctuations in energy resource prices and increasing technological effort for the development of new fi elds and the production of crude oil and natural gas.

In this situation, there is an urgent need for research and development: possible future reserves of energy resources have to be explored and innovative technologies for the exploration and development of the new deposits have to be worked out. Here, the BGR is acting prior to industrial activities, especially in the exploration of the energy resource potential of so far hardly noticed regions like the deep-water areas of the oceans.

Also in the coming years, fossil fuels will bear the major burden of the energy supply. Therefore, basic information availability is absolutely essential for the orientation of Germany’s future energy supply. With the present study, BGR presents on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economy and Technology an analysis of the status quo and of future developments in the fi eld of energy resources.

1 The Availability of Energy Resources - An Overview

In this study reserves, resources, output, and consumption of the energy resources oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear fuel as well as geothermal energy are globally analyzed and evaluated in a regional context by year end 2007. Thus, this is the fi rst time after the study based on the year 2002 (BGR, 2003, data status at the end of 2001) that the BGR gathers, collects and evaluates the global energy resource situation in detail. The period after the publication of the last study has been characterized in particular by signifi cant increases of the prices for raw materials, which has also resulted in an increased perception of the subject raw materials in politics and the general public.

The reserves of non-renewable energy resources corresponded to approximately 38 700 EJ in total (Tab. 1.1) at the end of 2007. The increase of 2220 EJ in comparison to 2001 was particularly due to increases of soft brown coal and the conventional hydrocarbons, crude oil and natural gas.

Coal is still the dominant energy resource as measured by its recoverable energy content. Its proportion of the reserves of all non-renewable energy resources is approximately 55 % (Fig. 1.1). Crude oil with nearly 23 % (conventional and unconventional with 17 % and 6 %, respectively) ranks second. Natural gas follows at nearly 19 %, the nuclear fuels add up to app. 4 %.

Figure 1.1: Annual production, reserves and resources of the individual non-renewable fuels in 2007.（略）

The resources of the non-renewable energy resources were estimated at approximately 571 700 EJ (Tab. 1.1) by the end of 2007. There is a signifi cant increase by approximately one-and-a half times in comparison to 2001. This is due to a different assessment of coal, to the hitherto not considered resources and unconventional natural gas deposits in tight reservoirs and coalbed methane.

Table 1.1: Reserves and resources of non-renewable fuels at the end of 2007 in the common unit for the individual fuels (left column each) and in EJ (right column each).（略）

In relation to the energy content, the dominant position of coal amongst the resources at a proportion of about 76 % is even more signifi cant than for the reserves. At nearly 20 % the aggregated resources of conventional and unconventional natural gas range second, at 1.6 % and 18.1 % respectively. Crude oil follows at 3 % ahead of nuclear fuel at a little more than 1 %.

For the production of non-renewable energy resources a signifi cant increase was observed, from 335 EJ in the year 2001 to 439 EJ in 2007. This increase was reported for all energy resources, but especially for hard coal, the production of which increased from 82 to 124 EJ/a. With the exception of Europe, all regions showed increases in production. In Austral-Asia these were particularly high, because of hard coal, with an increase from 71 to 124 EJ/a. Major increases also occurred in the CIS and in the Middle East.

The consumption of non-renewable fuels also underwent a signifi cant increase from 346 to 451 EJ/a. With the exception of uranium, the consumption increased for all resources, in particular for coal from 94 to 145 EJ/a. Increases were noted in all regions. The consumption in Austral-Asia increased from 98 to 191 EJ/a. The proportion of the OECD was signifi cantly lowered from 63 to 50 %.

If the global annual production of all energy resources in total for 2007 at 439 EJ, the reserves at 38 700 EJ and the resources at 571 700 EJ are compared, a ratio of approximately 1 : 90 : 1300 results. The global reserves of energy resources with the exception of conventional oil can thus ensure a suffi cient cover of the energy demand.

Based on the analysis of the data, the following key statements result for the individual energy resources:

The use of geothermal energy has developed rapidly over the past years. Globally, the power generation rates for geothermal energy have increased nearly linearly by 200 to 250 MWe annually since 1980. The direct use of heat increased simultaneously even out of proportion due to the massive growth of local heating systems with heat pumps. In 2005 the worldwide existing geothermal systems had an installed capacity of 27 825 MWth of thermal energy and 8933 MWe of electrical energy. At an installed capacity of 2504 MWe for power generation and 7817 MWth for the direct use of heat, the US stand out from the other countries as largest user of geothermal energy world-wide.

The exploitation of geothermal energy by development schemes for regenerative energies and for the reduction of CO2 emissions will continue to increase considerably, not only in Germany but also in other countries such as the USA, Australia and Kenya.

Regarding the supply with nuclear fuel, from a geological point of view no shortage is to be expected in the foreseeable future. All over the world increasing reserves and resources are noted. The concentration of the global output as well as the known reserves and resources in a few countries continue unabatedly. In 2007, only seven mining companies produced 85 % of the global production. Here, the production occurs in politically stable countries with inexpensive deposits. The upturn of the market resulted in a signifi cantly increased production. Thus, in future a higher degree of diversifi cation of the producing countries is to be expected.

The gap between the annual production and the consumption continues to exist. As before, the additional demand for uranium is being satisfi ed from civil stock previously amassed, and from strategic stock. After massive increases in prices in the past years, ever since 2007 an adaptation of the markets concerning the spot market prices has started with a simultaneous increase of the prices for long-term supply contracts. In spite of the current crisis affecting the fi nancial markets all over the world, the market prices are above those before 2006. All over the world, a number of countries has announced the construction of new power plants for the coming decade. These projects are frequently coupled with the
development of alternative and more effi cient technologies, also using Thorium.

Coal is the energy resource with the greatest geological availability. Soft brown and hard coal together have the greatest potential of all non-renewable energy resources at a percentage of about 55 % (722 trillion tce) of the reserves and about 76 % (14 866 trillion tce) of the resources. This is suffi cient to satisfy the foreseeable demand for many decades. Coal ranks second after crude oil amongst the non-renewable energy resources with a global PEV-percentage of about 30 % (hard coal 28 %, soft brown coal about 2 %) as far as consumption is concerned. For the global power generation (gross), coal was the most important energy resource at a percentage of 40 % (7620 TWh) in 2006 (IEA, 2008a). Due
to its widespread and plentiful occurrences it is regarded as a most important element of security of supply in the energy resource sector.

Just like its predecessors, the Annual Reports of the BGR of the preceding years, this study also documents an increase in resources. In future, further changes in reserves as well as in resources have to be taken into account, as the high price of coal in the past years has caused a noticeable extension of the exploration and also developing activities.

The results of the currently conducted pilot project for the reduction of CO2-emissions such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), in particular for the power generation from coal, will infl uence decision which role the immense supply of coal will play in future in the global energy supply. In addition, coal could moderate possible future bottlenecks in oil supply by means of coal liquefaction.

Natural gas has suffi cient potential to take over the part of a bridging energy carrier towards renewable energies for the next decades. Traditional reserves of natural gas show a strong regional concentration. Thus, the three leading countries possessing most of the natural gas, Russia, Iran and Qatar harbor more than half of the reserves. The high specifi c transportation costs of natural gas are disadvantageous in comparison to crude oil and coal.

The proportion of liquefi ed natural gas (LNG) in transportation will continue to rise. Owing to long-term obligations of delivery and regional markets for natural gas, no dominant world market comparable to crude oil will develop.

Unconventional natural gas, in particular natural gas from tight reservoirs gas, shale gas and coal bed natural gas will assume greater importance in satisfying the demand for tight gas. The production of natural gas from gas hydrate is still in the testing stage.

Crude Oil is the most important energy resource and will remain so in future. Based on the current degree of depletion of the reserves, conventional oil will not be available in the foreseeable future at the previous amounts.

Based on the existing general requirements of the oil market for an optimum use of the reserves and resources, the global maximum of the production of conventional crude oil will be reached around 2020. If, in addition, increases in reserves from producing deposits and the possible production of oil from oil sands are taken into account, based on the mentioned prerequisites, an increase of the production until 2035 is possible (Fig. 1.2). According to the projections conducted in the course of this study, the future production of oil will not exceed 4.7 Gt per year. Just as for natural gas, the remaining reserves are increasingly concentrated in the strategic ellipse. National state-owned oil companies are increasingly forcing international trusts into the background, where access to the reserves and production are concerned.

Figure 1.2: Historic development of oil production and projected course of production for conventional oil including condensate (NGL) and additionally taking into account the oil sand production and increases in reserves (Field Growth).（略）

Unconventional oil, in particular from oil sands, shall play an increasingly important part in the future. The expected maximum in production for oil, however, cannot be delayed for long. Signifi cant additional oil - but also potential for natural gas is expected in the frontier areas of the Arctic and the deep-water areas of the edges of the continents. In particular, due to the more effective oil recovery of producing fi elds, additional increases in reserves will occur.

The particular situation of oil is also demonstrated by the synopsis of reserves and resources of the non-renewable energy resources (Fig. 1.3). This impression is even further intensifi ed in comparison with the cumulative consumption in the period from 2008 to 2030 in accordance with the reference scenario of the IEA (2008b). Whereas coal has the greatest potential by far, a still relaxed image emerges for natural gas and uranium. Crude oil is the energy resource, whose deposits have been depleted most on a global scale.

Figure 1.3: Supply situation (reserves and resources) of non-renewable energy resources in comparison with a demand scenario by the IEA (2008) to 2030.（略）

1.1 References on the Availability of Energy resources - An Overview
BGR (Bundesanstalt fur Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe) (2003): Rohstoffwirtschaftliche Landerstudien XXVII: Reserven, Ressourcen und Verfugbarkeit von Energierohstoffen 2002. . 426 p; Hannover.
IEA (International Energy Agency) (2008a): Electricity Information 2008. - 760 p; Paris.
- (2008b): World Energy Outlook 2008. . 569 p; Paris.