Jansen,J.C. and Seebregts,A.J.(2010): Long-term energy services security: What is it and how can it be measured and valued? Energy Policy, 38, 1654-1664.


 The paper reviews some recent approaches towards measuring the extent of long-term energy security and security externality valuation. It starts out to discuss the contextual connotations of notions of ‘energy security’ in medium to long-term time frames and reviews some indicators that have been proposed to quantify it. Special attention is paid to two of these approaches, which the authors helped to develop, i.e. diversity based indices and the Supply/Demand Index. The paper takes issue with conventional welfare economic approaches that neglect: (i) the scope on the demand side for raising security and (ii) negative feedback mechanisms of socio-political impacts of international rent transfers in fossil fuels exporting countries. The concept of energy services security is proposed with a demand-side focus. This enables application of an integrated approach to gauge the resilience of a society to meet the needs of its population for energy services over longer timescales ahead from various interrelated perspectives. Propositions are made on the attribution of security externalities to the use of fossil fuels, policies, and suggestions for further improvements of measures for energy services security.

Keywords: Energy services security; Diversity-based indices; Supply/Demand Index』

1. Introduction
2. How secure is an energy economy?
 2.1. Towards a more secure energy economy
 2.2. Enhancing resilience against energy services security vulnerability
3. Security externality valuation: general statements
 3.1. Externalities to the use of fossil fuels
 3.2. ESS externality valuations are intrinsically subjective
4. Some recent approaches to measure supply security
 4.1. Multi-fossil-fuels energy security measurement
 4.2. Diversity-based indices
 4.3. Supply/Demand Index
5. Recent valuations of supply security externalities
 5.1. Energy security externality valuation focusing on oil
6. Concluding remarks
 6.1. The need for an integrated approach
 6.2. Valuation of supply security externalities
 6.3. Measures enhancing long-term ESS
 6.4. Advancing the design of credible long-term ESS indices