『Abstract
The paper reviews some recent approaches towards measuring the
extent of long-term energy security and security externality valuation.
It starts out to discuss the contextual connotations of notions
of ‘energy security’ in medium to long-term time frames and reviews
some indicators that have been proposed to quantify it. Special
attention is paid to two of these approaches, which the authors
helped to develop, i.e. diversity based indices and the Supply/Demand
Index. The paper takes issue with conventional welfare economic
approaches that neglect: (i) the scope on the demand side for
raising security and (ii) negative feedback mechanisms of socio-political
impacts of international rent transfers in fossil fuels exporting
countries. The concept of energy services security is proposed
with a demand-side focus. This enables application of an integrated
approach to gauge the resilience of a society to meet the needs
of its population for energy services over longer timescales ahead
from various interrelated perspectives. Propositions are made
on the attribution of security externalities to the use of fossil
fuels, policies, and suggestions for further improvements of measures
for energy services security.
Keywords: Energy services security; Diversity-based indices; Supply/Demand
Index』
1. Introduction
2. How secure is an energy economy?
2.1. Towards a more secure energy economy
2.2. Enhancing resilience against energy services security vulnerability
3. Security externality valuation: general statements
3.1. Externalities to the use of fossil fuels
3.2. ESS externality valuations are intrinsically subjective
4. Some recent approaches to measure supply security
4.1. Multi-fossil-fuels energy security measurement
4.2. Diversity-based indices
4.3. Supply/Demand Index
5. Recent valuations of supply security externalities
5.1. Energy security externality valuation focusing on oil
6. Concluding remarks
6.1. The need for an integrated approach
6.2. Valuation of supply security externalities
6.3. Measures enhancing long-term ESS
6.4. Advancing the design of credible long-term ESS indices
References