『Abstract
　Economic assessments of the welfare effects of energy insecurity are typically uncertain and fall to provide clear guidance to policy makers. As a result, governments have had little analytical support to complement expert judgment in the assessment of energy security. This is likely to be inadequate when considering multiple policy goals, and in particular the intersections between energy security and climate change mitigation policies. This paper presents an alternative approach which focuses on gauging the causes of energy insecurity as a way to assist policy making. The paper focuses on the energy security implications of fossil fuel resource concentration and distinguishes between the price and physical availability components of energy insecurity, It defines two separate indexes: the energy security price index (ESPI), based on the measure of market concentration in competitive fossil fuel markets, and the energy security physical availability index (ESPAI), based on the measure of supply flexibility in regulated markets. The paper illustrates the application of ESPI and ESPAI with two case studies - France and the United Kingdom - looking at the evolution of both indexes to 2030.

Keywords: Energy security; Resource concentration; Indicators』

1. Energy insecurity and fossil fuel resource concentration
　1.1. An impractical definition of energy insecurity
　1.2.A need for alternative assessment tools
2. What to measure: balancing uncertainty and policy relevance
　2.1. Insights from climate change mitigation
　2.2. Application to fossil fuel resource concentration
　　2.2.1. A price or physical availability concern?
　　2.2.2. Causal links of the price implications of resource concentration
　　2.2.3. Causal links of the physical availability implications of resource concentration
3. Measuring the price implications of fossil fuel resource concentration in competitive markets
　3.1. Energy security market concentration (ESMC)
　3.2. Accounting for political stability
　3.3. Energy security price index (ESPI)
4. Measuring the physical availability implications of fossil fuel resource concentration in regulated markets
5. Case studies; France and the United Kingdom
　5.1. Energy security price index (ESPI)
　　5.1.1. ESMC in the international oil market
　　5.1.2. ESMC in the international coal market
　　5.1.3. ESMC in the competitive segment of the international gas market
　　5.1.4. Energy security price index (ESPI)
　5.2. Energy security physical availability index (ESPAI)
6. Conclusion
Acknowledgments
References