Markandya,A. and Pemberton,M.(2010): Energy security, energy modelling and uncertainty. Energy Policy, 38, 1609-1613.


 The paper develops a framework to analyze energy security in an expected utility framework, where there is a risk of disruption of imported energy. The analysis shows the importance of an energy tax as a tool in maximizing expected utility, and how the level of that tax varies according to the key parameters of the system; risk aversion, probability of disruption, demand elasticity and cost of disruption.』

1. Introduction
2. The statement of the problem
3. A formal representation of the problem
 3.1. Numerical analysis using specific functional forms
 3.2. Numerical ranges for the parameters
4. Numerical results
 4.1. Sensitivity to costs of disruption
 4.2. sensitivity to probability of disruption
 4.3. sensitivity to the price elasticity of demand
 4.4. Sensitivity to risk aversion parameter
5. Conclusions
Appendix A