『Abstract
In today's global energy mix with a share of 80% fossil energy,
the growth of the world population and energy demand will lead
to a conflict between stable ecosystem and global welfare. The
inspection of social indexes of welfare and happiness leads to
the following energy plan: high-income countries with a current
annual energy demand of up to 8 tonnes of oil equivalent per capita
(toe pc) have to reduce their demand to 2 toe pc, which should
be sufficient without cutback in welfare. Vice versa, low-income
countries increase their demand until 2 toe pc are reached. Compared
to today this scenario (2 toe pc, 9 billion people by 2050) leads
to an increase of the ecological footprint from today 1.3 to 2
planet Earths in today's technologies. The only solution to provide
2 toe pc without damaging the biosphere is a reduction of the
CO2 footprint with a current share of 50%.
A complete shift from fossil fuels to renewable would half the
ecological footprint as needed for the desired footprint of one
planet Earth. To reach this goal, one or more forms of solar power
and/or nuclear power are needed, as the potential of non-solar
renewables is too small.
Keywords: Energy Mix; Welfare; Ecological Footprint』
1. Introduction
2. Starting point: today's global energy consumption and fuel
shares
3. Current reserves and resources of fossil fuels
4. Projected energy demand and energy mix of the future
5. World energy consumption and world population
6. Energy consumption and gross national product
7. Energy consumption proportion of undernourished in total population
8. Energy consumption and status of human development
9. Energy consumption and human happiness
10. Energy consumption and ecological footprint
11. Energy plan to solve the conflict between stable ecosystems
and stable societies
12. Summary
References