『(Abstract)
Anthropogenic global warming caused by CO2
emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to future energy
production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from
2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and
is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Previous
scenarios were withdrawn after exaggerating one or several trends.
This study investigates underlying assumptions on resource availability
and future production expectations to determine whether exaggerations
can be found in the present set of emission scenarios as well.
It is found that the SRES unnecessarily takes an overoptimistic
stance and that future production expectations are leaning toward
spectacular increases from present output levels. In summary,
we can only encourage the IPCC to involve more resource experts
and natural science in future emission scenarios. The current
set, SRES, is biased toward exaggerated resource availability
and unrealistic expectations on future production outputs from
fossil fuels.
Key Words: SRES; emission scenarios; future fossil fuel production.』
Introduction
Climate change and fossil fuel production peaking
Aim of this study
The special report on emission scenarios (SRES)
Scenario overviews
Resource depletion and future production
SRES dependence on Rogner
SRES standpoint regarding resource depletion
Fossil fuel production in SRES
A1 family
A2 family
B1 family
B2 family
Comments on the SRES production outlooks
Conclusions
Acknowledgments
References