Contents
Preface
1 Introduction .........................................................................................................
7
2 Global Reserves, Resources and Production ....................................................
10
3 Regional Distribution and Availability .............................................................
13
4 Individual Energy Resources .............................................................................
17
Crude Oil ....................................................................................................
17
Natural Gas ................................................................................................
20
Coal .............................................................................................................
22
Uranium ......................................................................................................
25
Thorium ......................................................................................................
26
5 Summary and Conclusions
................................................................................
28
References ............................................................................................................
31
Annex Tables .......................................................................................................
33
Crude Oil ......................................................................................................
35
Natural Gas ..................................................................................................
45
Coal ...............................................................................................................
55
Uranium ........................................................................................................
70
Glossary ...............................................................................................................
77
This annual report analyses reserves, resources, production
and consumption of crude oil, natural gas, coal, uranium and thorium
throughout the world at the end of 2008.
The report is based on data and information available in the BGR-database,
reports from energy-related organisations, political institutions,
published information (including that of the industry) and other
sources.
This is an update of the previous annual report (BGR 2008) and
the detailed report “Energy Resources 2009” (BGR 2009). It forms
part of BGR’s advisory service to the German Federal Ministry
of Economics and Technology (BMWi).
With respect to the energy markets, the following trends could
be observed:
Figure 13 shows the supply situation of individual non-renewable
energy resources and their predicted cumulative consumption from
2009 to 2030. The consumption is based on the reference scenario
of the IEA (2008).
Fig. 13: Supply Situation of Non-Renewable Energy Resources in
2008（略）
The assessment of reserves, resources and the availability of
non-renewable energy resources allows the following conclusions
to be drawn:
Crude Oil
From a geological viewpoint, the remaining potential for conventional
oil can sustain a moderate increase in oil consumption over the
next several years. However, at some stage in the future the maximum
production of conventional oil (.Peak Oil“) will be reached. Thereafter
production will start to decline. This is also the result of the
projection of oil production by the BGR (BGR 2009). The percentage
of oil production from the OPEC (especially the Persian Gulf region)
will increase in the future.
The majority of conventional oil reserves occur within the so
called .Strategic Ellipse“ which stretches from the Middle East
across to the Caspian Region and Northern Russia. At the same
time this ellipse partly corresponds with politically unstable
regions and thus presents a certain confl ict potential.
Uncertainties regarding the proper assessment of reserves in OPEC
countries could lead to overestimation of the oil production potential.
This in turn could cause an unexpected shortage of supply. On
the other hand, technological progress can lead to increased recovery
rates in the producing fi elds thus providing additional production.
After “peak oil”, non-conventional oil production will modify
the decline in oil supply rather than close the gap between demand
and supply.
In addition to the above uncertainties and the effects of the
recent fi nancial crisis, it is unclear how the current climate
debate will impact on future oil consumption.
Oil will become more expensive owing to the increasing dependency
on OPEC countries and the costly development of new fi elds in
frontier areas.
Natural Gas
Taking into account both reserves and resources, the situation
for natural gas is more favourable than that for oil. Hence, it
is expected that natural gas will be available for many decades
to meet the global demand.
However, there are large differences in the occurrence of natural
gas reserves with respect to the gas markets. The European natural
gas market is in a comfortable position due to relatively easy
access to neighbouring regions rich in natural gas reserves. These
are in particular Russia and other CIS countries, North Africa
and the Middle East. Currently the supply of natural gas to Europe
mainly takes place via pipeline. However, in the future LNG supply
will increase and to a certain extent contribute to the diversifi
cation of supply countries.
Spot markets could well develop when the shares of LNG increase
in the international gas trade.
The high specifi c transportation costs for natural gas are a
limiting factor, though.
Coal
Coal offers the greatest range of global reserves and resources
compared to other fossil fuels. The existing reserves of hard
coal are suffi cient for more than 125 years of production at
the current level. In the case of lignite it will span more than
200 years of production. Additionally, coal has the most favourable
resources to reserves ratio among the nonrenewable energy resources.
On the other hand, however, coal is the fossil energy resource
with the highest specific CO2-emissions. Intense current research
and development activities are focussing on solutions to reduce
and/or avoid CO2-emissions when burning coal. Ongoing and planned
pilot projects will show, to what extent the underground storage
of CO2 will be a useful option in reducing CO2-emissions.
In addition, fuels can be produced from coal by liquefaction (GTL)
or gasifi cation. Numerous activities in this direction are currently
taking place in China.
At present it is diffi cult to imagine how the future worldwide
energy demand could be met without the coal, which is relatively
easily obtainable.
Nuclear Fuels
Looking at it in geological terms, there is no shortage of nuclear
fuels expected in the foreseeable future. Apart from increasing
reserves as a result of growing exploration activities, sufficient
resources already exist. This will secure supply for decades to
come.
In addition to the mining production of uranium, the use of secondary
sources like civil and military stockpiles and the reprocessing
of uranium are of considerable importance.
The availability of nuclear fuels could even be increased by using
them more efficiently in modern reactors.
If needed in the future, uranium resources could be utilized which
are recoverable at much higher costs than at present. This would
be possible because the fuel costs are only a small portion of
the electricity generating costs.
The lack of nuclear fuel reserves and resources will not be the
limiting factor for the utilisation of nuclear energy in the future.