BGR(German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources)(2009): Reserves, Resources and Availability of
Energy Resources - Annual Report 2009 -
. 90p.


Contents

Preface
1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 7
2 Global Reserves, Resources and Production .................................................... 10
3 Regional Distribution and Availability ............................................................. 13
4 Individual Energy Resources ............................................................................. 17
@Crude Oil .................................................................................................... 17
@Natural Gas ................................................................................................ 20
@Coal ............................................................................................................. 22
@Uranium ...................................................................................................... 25
@Thorium ...................................................................................................... 26
5 Summary and Conclusions ................................................................................ 28
References ............................................................................................................ 31

Annex Tables ....................................................................................................... 33
@Crude Oil ...................................................................................................... 35
@Natural Gas .................................................................................................. 45
@Coal ............................................................................................................... 55
@Uranium ........................................................................................................ 70
Glossary ............................................................................................................... 77


Preface

This annual report analyses reserves, resources, production and consumption of crude oil, natural gas, coal, uranium and thorium throughout the world at the end of 2008.

The report is based on data and information available in the BGR-database, reports from energy-related organisations, political institutions, published information (including that of the industry) and other sources.

This is an update of the previous annual report (BGR 2008) and the detailed report gEnergy Resources 2009h (BGR 2009). It forms part of BGRfs advisory service to the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWi).

With respect to the energy markets, the following trends could be observed:


5 Summary and Conclusions

Figure 13 shows the supply situation of individual non-renewable energy resources and their predicted cumulative consumption from 2009 to 2030. The consumption is based on the reference scenario of the IEA (2008).

Fig. 13: Supply Situation of Non-Renewable Energy Resources in 2008ij

The assessment of reserves, resources and the availability of non-renewable energy resources allows the following conclusions to be drawn:

Crude Oil

From a geological viewpoint, the remaining potential for conventional oil can sustain a moderate increase in oil consumption over the next several years. However, at some stage in the future the maximum production of conventional oil (.Peak Oilg) will be reached. Thereafter production will start to decline. This is also the result of the projection of oil production by the BGR (BGR 2009). The percentage of oil production from the OPEC (especially the Persian Gulf region) will increase in the future.

The majority of conventional oil reserves occur within the so called .Strategic Ellipseg which stretches from the Middle East across to the Caspian Region and Northern Russia. At the same time this ellipse partly corresponds with politically unstable regions and thus presents a certain confl ict potential.

Uncertainties regarding the proper assessment of reserves in OPEC countries could lead to overestimation of the oil production potential. This in turn could cause an unexpected shortage of supply. On the other hand, technological progress can lead to increased recovery rates in the producing fi elds thus providing additional production.

After gpeak oilh, non-conventional oil production will modify the decline in oil supply rather than close the gap between demand and supply.
In addition to the above uncertainties and the effects of the recent fi nancial crisis, it is unclear how the current climate debate will impact on future oil consumption.

Oil will become more expensive owing to the increasing dependency on OPEC countries and the costly development of new fi elds in frontier areas.

Natural Gas

Taking into account both reserves and resources, the situation for natural gas is more favourable than that for oil. Hence, it is expected that natural gas will be available for many decades to meet the global demand.

However, there are large differences in the occurrence of natural gas reserves with respect to the gas markets. The European natural gas market is in a comfortable position due to relatively easy access to neighbouring regions rich in natural gas reserves. These are in particular Russia and other CIS countries, North Africa and the Middle East. Currently the supply of natural gas to Europe mainly takes place via pipeline. However, in the future LNG supply will increase and to a certain extent contribute to the diversifi cation of supply countries.

Spot markets could well develop when the shares of LNG increase in the international gas trade.

The high specifi c transportation costs for natural gas are a limiting factor, though.

Coal

Coal offers the greatest range of global reserves and resources compared to other fossil fuels. The existing reserves of hard coal are suffi cient for more than 125 years of production at the current level. In the case of lignite it will span more than 200 years of production. Additionally, coal has the most favourable resources to reserves ratio among the nonrenewable energy resources.

On the other hand, however, coal is the fossil energy resource with the highest specific CO2-emissions. Intense current research and development activities are focussing on solutions to reduce and/or avoid CO2-emissions when burning coal. Ongoing and planned pilot projects will show, to what extent the underground storage of CO2 will be a useful option in reducing CO2-emissions.

In addition, fuels can be produced from coal by liquefaction (GTL) or gasifi cation. Numerous activities in this direction are currently taking place in China.

At present it is diffi cult to imagine how the future worldwide energy demand could be met without the coal, which is relatively easily obtainable.

Nuclear Fuels

Looking at it in geological terms, there is no shortage of nuclear fuels expected in the foreseeable future. Apart from increasing reserves as a result of growing exploration activities, sufficient resources already exist. This will secure supply for decades to come.

In addition to the mining production of uranium, the use of secondary sources like civil and military stockpiles and the reprocessing of uranium are of considerable importance.

The availability of nuclear fuels could even be increased by using them more efficiently in modern reactors.

If needed in the future, uranium resources could be utilized which are recoverable at much higher costs than at present. This would be possible because the fuel costs are only a small portion of the electricity generating costs.

The lack of nuclear fuel reserves and resources will not be the limiting factor for the utilisation of nuclear energy in the future.


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