Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2009 iii
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
Highlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
　World Energy Use by Fuel Type. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
　World Delivered Energy Use by Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
　World Carbon Dioxide Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
World Energy Demand and Economic Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
　Outlook for World Energy Consumption by Source . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
　Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
　World Economic Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
　Major Sources of Uncertainty in the Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
　References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Liquid Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
　World Liquids Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
　World Oil Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
　World Liquids Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
　Oil Reserves and Resources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
　References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
　World Natural Gas Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
　World Natural Gas Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
　Natural Gas Import Dependence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
　World Natural Gas Reserves. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
　References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
　World Coal Consumption. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
　World Coal Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
　World Coal Trade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
　World Coal Reserves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
　References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
　Electricity Supply by Energy Source . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
　Regional Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
　References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
Industrial Sector Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
　Energy-Intensive Industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
　Regional Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
　References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
Transportation Sector Energy Consumption. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
　OECD Countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
　Non-OECD Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
　References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
　Reference Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
　Alternative Macroeconomic Growth Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
　Alternative Oil Price Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116

Appendixes
A. Reference Case Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
B. High Economic Growth Case Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
C. Low Economic Growth Case Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
D. High Oil Price Case Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
E. Low Oil Price Case Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
F. Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Country Grouping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
G. Projections of Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum Production in Five Cases. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223
H. Reference Case Projections for Electricity Capacity and Generation by Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245
I. Comparisons With International Energy Agency and IEO2008 Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265
J. Models Used To Generate the IEO2009 Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271
K. Regional Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273

Tables
1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Country Grouping, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2. World Gross Domestic Product by Country Grouping, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
3. World Liquid Fuels Production in the Reference Case, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
4. World Oil Reserves by Country as of January 1, 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
5. World Natural Gas Production by Region and Country, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
6. World Natural Gas Reserves by Country as of January 1, 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
7. World Coal Production by Region, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
8. World Coal Flows by Importing and Exporting Regions, Reference Case, 2007, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
9. World Recoverable Coal Reserves as of January 1, 2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
10. OECDand Non-OECD Net Electricty Generation by Energy Source, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
11. OECDand Non-OECD Renewable Electricty Generation by Energy Source, 2006-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
12. OECDand Non-OECD Industrial Energy Consumption by Source, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
13. World Energy Consumption for Transportation by Country Grouping, 2006-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
14. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Selected Annex I Areas, 1990, 2006, and 2010 . . . . . . . . . . 110
15. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
16. Carbon Dioxide Intensity by Region and Country, 1980-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
17. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions per Capita by Region and Country, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115

Figures
1. World Marketed Energy Consumption, 2006-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type, 1980-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
3. World Oil Prices in the IEO2009 and IEO2008 Reference Cases, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
4. World Liquids Production, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
5. Net Change in World Natural Gas Production, 2006-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
6. World Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
7. World Renewable Electricity Generation by Energy Source, 2006, 2015, and 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
8. Net Increase in Industrial Energy Use by Region, 2006-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
9. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
10. World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1980-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
11. World Marketed Energy Consumption:OECDand Non-OECD, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
12. Marketed Energy Use by Region, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
13. Marketed Energy Use in the Non-OECD Economies by Region, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
14. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type, 1980-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
15. Coal Consumption in Selected World Regions, 1980-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
16. World Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
17. World Renewable Electricity Generation by Source, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
18. Renewable Electricity Generation in China by Fuel, 2006-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
19. World Nuclear Generating Capacity by Region, 2006, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
20. World Marketed Energy Consumption in Three Economic Growth Cases, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
21. World Oil Prices in Three Price Cases, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
22. World Marketed Energy Consumption in Three Oil Price Cases, 2006-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
23. World Marketed Energy Consumption in Three Oil Price Cases, 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
24. World Liquids Consumption in Three Price Cases, 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
25. World Liquids Consumption by Region and Country Group, 2006 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
26. World Liquids Supply in Three Cases, 2006 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
27. World Production of Unconventional Liquid Fuels, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
28. World Liquids Consumption by Sector, 2006-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
29. World Oil Prices in Three Cases, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
30. Non-OPEC Conventional Liquids Production by Region, 2006 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
31. OPEC Conventional Liquids Production by Region, 2006 and 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
32. World Proved Oil Reserves by Geographic Region as of January 1, 2009. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
33. World Natural Gas Consumption, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
34. Natural Gas Consumption in North America by Country and Sector, 2006 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
35. Natural Gas Consumption inOECDAsia by Country and Sector, 2006 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
36. Natural Gas Consumption in Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, 1992-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
37. Natural Gas Consumption in Non-OECD Asia, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
38. Imports as Share ofOECDNatural Gas Consumption by Market, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
39. Imports as Share of Non-OECD Natural Gas Consumption by Country, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
40. World Natural Gas Reserves by Country Grouping, 1980-2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
41. World Natural Gas Reserves by Geographic Region as of January 1, 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
42. World Coal Consumption by Country Grouping, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
43. Coal Share of World Energy Consumption by Sector, 2006, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
44. OECDCoal Consumption by Region, 1980, 2006, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
45. Non-OECD Coal Consumption by Region, 1980, 2006, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
46. Coal Consumption in China by Sector, 2006, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
47. Coal Imports by Major Importing Region, 1995-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
48. Growth in World Electric Power Generation and Total Energy Consumption, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
49. World Net Electric Power Generation, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
50. Non-OECD Net Electricity Generation by Region, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
51. World Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
52. World Net Electricity Generation from Nuclear Power by Region, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
53. Net Electricity Generation inOECDNorth America, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
54. Net Electricity Generation inOECDNorth America by Fuel, 2006 and 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
55. Renewable Electricity Generation inOECDEurope by Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
56. Net Electricity Generation inOECDAsia, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
57. Net Electricity Generation in Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
58. Net Electricity Generation in Non-OECD Asia by Fuel, 2006-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
59. Net Electricity Generation in the Middle East by Fuel, 2006-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
60. Net Electricity Generation in Africa by Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
61. Net Electricity Generation in Brazil by Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
62. Net Electricity Generation in Other Central and South America by Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
63. OECDand Non-OECD Industrial Sector Energy Consumption, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
64. World Industrial Sector Energy Consumption by Fuel, 2006 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
65. World Industrial Sector Energy Consumption by Major Energy-Intensive Industry Shares, 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . 87
67. OECDIndustrial Sector Energy Consumption by Fuel, 2006 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
66. OECDand Non-OECD Major Steel Producers, 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
68. Non-OECD Industrial Sector Energy Consumption by Fuel, 2006 and 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
69. OECDand Non-OECD Transportation Sector Liquids Consumption, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
70. World Liquids Consumption by End-Use Sector, 2006-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
71. OECDand Non-OECD Liquids Consumption by End-Use Sector, 2006 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
72. Average Annual Growth in OECD and Non-OECD Gross Domestic Product and Transportation Sector Delivered Energy Use, 2006-2030 . . . 99
73. Change inOECDTransportation Sector Liquids Consumption by Region, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
74. Average Annual Change in Gross Domestic Product, Population, and Energy Consumption for Transportation byOECDRegion, 2006 to 2030 . . .101
75. Energy Consumption for Transportation inOECDEurope, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
76. Average Annual Change in Gross Domestic Product, Population, and Energy Consumption for Transportation by Non-OECD Region, 2006 to 2030. . . 103
77. Non-OECD Asia and World Transportation Sector Liquids Consumption, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
78. Energy Consumption for Passenger Transportation per Capita in China, India, and South Korea, 2006-2030 . . . 104
79. Personal and Public Transportation Shares of Total Passenger Miles Traveled in OECD Asia and Non-OECD Asia, 2006 and 2030 . . . 105
80. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
81. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel Type, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
82. U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel in IEO2008 and IEO2009, 2006, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . 111
83. Average Annual Growth in Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions in theOECDEconomies, 2006-2030 . . . 112
84. Average Annual Growth in Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Non-OECD Economies, 2006-2030 . . . 112
85. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Combustion, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
86. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Combustion, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
87. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Combustion, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
88. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions per Capita, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
89. Non-OECD Carbon Dioxide Emissions per Capita by Country and Region, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
90. OECDCarbon Dioxide Emissions per Capita by Country and Region, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
91. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Three Economic Growth Cases, 2006 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
92. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Three Oil Price Cases, 2006 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
K1. Map of the Six Basic Country Groupings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273

Appendix Tables
A1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
A2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
A3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . 124
A4. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Market Exchange Rates, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . 125
A5. World Liquids Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
A6. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
A7. World Coal Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
A8. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
A9. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . 130
A10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
A11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
A12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
A13. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
A14. World Population by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
B1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . 139
B2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . 140
B3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . 142
B4. World Liquids Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
B5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
B6. World Coal Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
B7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
B8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . 147
B9. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
B10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . 149
B11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . 150
B12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . 151
C1. World Total Energy Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
C2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
C3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030. . . 158
C4. World Liquids Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
C5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
C6. World Coal Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
C7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
C8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030. . . 163
C9. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
C10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030. . . . . 165
C11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030. . . 166
C12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . 167
D1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
D2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
D3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . 174
D4. World Liquids Consumption by Region, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
D5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
D6. World Coal Consumption by Region, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
D7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
D8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region,
High OIl Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
D9. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180
D10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
D11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . 182
D12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
E1. World Total Energy Consumption by Region, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
E2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188
E3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . 190
E4. World Liquids Consumption by Region, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
E5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
E6. World Coal Consumption by Region, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
E7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
E8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . 195
E9. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196
E10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
E11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . 198
E12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199
F1. Total World Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
F2. TotalOECDDelivered Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
F3. Delivered Energy Consumption in the United States by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205
F4. Delivered Energy Consumption in Canada by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206
F5. Delivered Energy Consumption in Mexico by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
F6. Delivered Energy Consumption inOECDEurope by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208
F7. Delivered Energy Consumption in Japan by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2006-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
F8. Delivered Energy Consumption in South Korea by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210
F9. Delivered Energy Consumption in Australia/New Zealand by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . 211
F10. Total Non-OECD Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2006-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212
F11. Delivered Energy Consumption in Russia by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
F12. Delivered Energy Consumption in Other Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . 214
F13. Delivered Energy Consumption in China by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
F14. Delivered Energy Consumption in India by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216
F15. Delivered Energy Consumption in Other Non-OECD Asia by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2006-2030. . . . . . . . . . 217
F16. Delivered Energy Consumption in the Middle East by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
F17. Delivered Energy Consumption in Africa by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
F18. Delivered Energy Consumption in Brazil by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2006-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220
F19. Delivered Energy Consumption in Other Central and South America by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2006-2030 . . . 221
G1. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
G2. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226
G3. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . 228
G4. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229
G5. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . 230
G6. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . 232
G7. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
G8. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . 234
G9. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . 236
G10. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . 237
G11. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . 238
G12. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . 240
G13. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . 241
G14. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030. . . 242
G15. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030. . . 244
H1. World Total Installed Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2006-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247
H2. World Installed Liquids-Fired Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
H3. World Installed Natural-Gas-Fired Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249
H4. World Installed Coal-Fired Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250
H5. World Installed Nuclear Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
H6. World Installed Hydroelectric Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252
H7. World Installed Wind-Powered Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2006-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253
H8. World Installed Geothermal Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2006-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254
H9. World Installed Other Renewable Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255
H10. World Total Net Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country, 2006-2030. . . . . . . . . 256
H11. World Net Liquids-Fired Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country, 2006-2030 . . .257
H12. World Net Natural-Gas-Fired Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country, 2006-2030 . . .258
H13. World Net Coal-Fired Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country, 2006-2030 . . . . 259
H14. World Net Nuclear Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country, 2006-2030 . . . . . . 260
H15. World Net Hydroelectric Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country, 2006-2030 . . . . . . . . . . 261
H16. World Net Wind-Powered Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country, 2006-2030 . . . 262
H17. World Net Geothermal Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country, 2006-2030 . . .263
H18. World Net Other Renewable Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country, 2006-2030 . . .264
I1. Comparison of IEO2009 and IEA World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Region, 2006-2015 . . . . . . . . . 265
I2. Comparison of IEO2009 and IEA World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Region, 2015-2030 . . . . . . . . . 267
I3. Comparison of IEO2009 and IEA World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Fuel, 2006-2015. . . . . . . . . . . . 267
I4. Comparison of IEO2009 and IEA World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Fuel, 2015-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . 268
I5. Comparison of IEO2009 and IEO2008 Total World Energy Consumption, Reference Case, 2015 and 2030 . . . . 269
I6. Comparison of IEO2009 and IEO2008 World Energy Consumption by Fuel, Reference Case, 2015 and 2030 . . 270