Cleveland,C.J., Costanza,R., Hall,C.A.S.
and Kaufmann,R.(1984): Energy and the U.S. economy: A biophysical
perspective. Science, 225, 890-897.
『エネルギーと米国経済:生物物理学的展望』
『Summary
A series of hypotheses is presented about the relation of national
energy use to national economic activity (both time series and
cross-sectional) which offer a different perspective from standard
economics for the assessment of historical and current economic
events. The analysis incorporates nearly 100 years of time series
data and 3 years of cross-sectional data on 87 sectors of the
United States economy. Gross national product, labor productivity,
and price levels are all correlated closely with various aspects
of energy use, and these correlations are improved when corrections
are made for energy quality. A large portion of the apparent increases
in U.S. energy efficiency has been due to our ability to expand
the relative use of high-quality fuels such as petroleum and electricity,
and also to relative shifts in fuel use between sectors of the
economy. The concept of energy return on investment is introduced
as a major driving force in our economy, and data are provided
which show a marked decline in energy return on investment for
all our principal fuels in recent decades. Future economic growth
will depend largely on the net energy yield of alternative fuel
sources, and some standard economic models may need to be modified
to account for the biophysical constraints on human economic activity.』
(Introduction)
Statement of hypotheses
Energy and economic production
Energy costs of capital and labor
Fuel use and economic output
Fuel efficiency
Labor productivity and technical change
Energy and inflation
Natural resource quality from an energy perspective
Alternative fuel sources
Conclusions
References and notes
Table 1. Eastimates of energy return on investment (EROI) ratios
for some existing and proposed fuel supply technologies (54).
Numbers in parentheses for electricity generation include a quality
factor based on a heat rate of 2646 kcal/kWh.
Process |
EROI |
Nonrenewable |
Oil and gas (domestic wellhead) |
|
|
1940's |
Discoveries>100.0* |
|
1970's |
Production 23.0,
discoveries 8.0 |
Coal (mine mouth) |
|
|
1950's |
80.3 |
|
1970's |
30.0 |
Oil shale |
0.7 to 13.3 |
Coal liquefaction |
0.5 to 8.2 |
Geopressured gas |
10. to 5.0 |
Renewable |
Ethanol (sugarcane) |
0.8 to 1.7 |
Ethanol (corn) |
1.3 |
Ethanol (corn residues) |
0.7 to 1.8 |
Methanol (wood) |
2.6 |
Solar space heat (fossil backup) |
|
|
Flat-plate collector |
1.9 |
|
Concentrating collector |
1.6 |
Electricity production† |
Coal |
|
|
U.S. average |
9.0 (27.0) |
|
Western surface coal |
|
|
No scrubbers |
6.0 (18.0) |
|
Scrubbers |
2.5 (7.5) |
Hydropower |
11.2 (33.6) |
Nuclear (light-water reactor) |
4.0 (12.0) |
Solar |
|
|
Power satellite |
2.0 (6.0) |
|
Power tower |
4.2 (12.6) |
|
Photovoltaics |
1.7 (5.1) to 10.0 (30.0) |
Geothermal |
|
|
Liquid |
4.0 (12.0) |
|
Hot dry rock |
1.9 (5.7) to 13.0 (39.0) |
*Based on discovery rates reported by
Hubbert (44) and the assumption that energy use in drilling was
;ess than 1 barrel per foot [Hall and Cleveland (44)].
†Does not
include energy in fuel. |
- (44) W.Davis, Oil Gas J, 56, 105 (1958);
M.K.Hubbert, in Hearing Before the U.S. Senate Committee on
Interior Insular Affairs (Seris No. 93-40, Government Printing
Office, Washington, D.C., 1974); H.W.Menard and G.Sharman, Science,
190, 337 (1975); C.A.S.Hall and C.J.Cleveland, ibid.,
211, 576 (1981).
- (45) Oil and gas: C.A.S.Hall, C.J.Cleveland and R.Kaufmann,
Biophysical Economics (Wiley, New York, in press) [see
also (44)];
imported petroleum: R.Kaufmann and C.A.S.Hall, in Energy
and Ecological Modelling, W.J.Mitsch, R.W. Bosserman and
J.M.Klopatek, Eds. (Elsevier, New York, 1981), pp.697-702;
coal: C.Hall, C.J.Cleveland and M.Berger, ibid., pp.715-724.
The decline in EROI for coal is due to (i) physical factors such
as smaller seam thicknesses and a 1 percent per year decline
in the average heat content of bituminous coal from 1955 to the
mid-1970's; (ii) a relative increase in surface mining, which
is more energy intensive than underground mining, and (iii) the
effects on output of the Coal Mine Health and Safety Act of 1969.
- (54) Oil shale: C.G.Lind and W.J.Mitsch, in
Energy and Ecological Modelling, W.J.Mitsch, R.W.Bosserman,
J.M.Klopatek, Eds.(Elsevier, New York, 1981).
Coal loquefaction: General Accounting Office, “DOE funds
new energy technologies without estimating potential net energy
yields” (report to Congress, July 1982).
Geopressured gas: C.J.Cleveland and R.Costanza, Energy,
9, 35 (1984).
Ethanol from sugarcane: C.S.Hopkinson,Jr. and J.W.Day,Jr.,
Science, 207, 302 (1980).
Ethanol from corn: R.S.Chambers, R.A.Herendeen, J.J.Joyce
and P.S.Penner, ibid., 206, 789 (1979).
Ethanol from corn residues: D.Pimentel et al., ibid.,
212, 1110 (1981).
Ethanol from wood: B.Hannon and H.Perez-Blanco, “Ethanol
and methanol as industrial feedstocks,” report to Argonne National
Laboratories, Argonne, IIi., contract ANL 31-109-38-5154 (1979).
Residential solar: B.Hannpn, in Energy, Economics,
and the Environment, H.E.Daly and A.F.Umana, Eds. (westview,
Boulder, Colo., 1981).
Electricity Production: U.S. average: D.Pilati, Energy,
2, 1 (January 1977); western surface coal: P.Penner, J.Kurish,
and B.Hannon, “Energy and labor cost of coal electric fuel cycles”
(Document 273, Energy Research Group, University of Illinois,
Urbana, 1979);
Hydropower: M.W.Gilliland, J.M.Klopatek and S.G.Hildebrand,
Net Energy of Seven Small-Scale Hydroelectric Power Plants
(Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., 1981);
Power satellite: R.A.Herendeen, T.Kary and J.Rebitzer,
Science, 205, 451 (1979);
Power tower: A.J.Frabetti, “A study to develop estimates
of merit for selected fuel technologies” (Development Sciences,
Inc., East Sandwich, Mass., 1975);
Photovoltaics (low estimate): D.Grimmer, “ Solar energy
breeders” (Report LA-UR-78-2973, Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory,
Los Alamos, N.M., 1978), quoted in Hannon, op. cit.;
Geothermal: R.Herendeen and R.Plant, “Energy analysis
of geothermal electric system” (Document 272, Energy Research
Group, University of Illinois, Urbana,1979).
See C.A.S.Hall et al. (45) and R.Kaufmann and C.A.S.Gall (45)
for nuclear and other solar estimates.
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