『Abstract
Over the last 25 yr, considerable debate has continued about
the future supply of fossil fuel. On one side are those who believe
we are rapidly depleting resources and that the resulting shortages
will have a profound impact on society. On the other side are
those who see no impending crisis because long-term trends are
for cheaper prices despite rising production. The concepts of
resources and reserves have historically created considerable
misunderstanding in the minds of many nongeologists. Hubbert-type
prediction of energy production assume that there is a finite
supply of energy that is measurable; however, estimates of resources
and reserves are inventories of the amounts of a fossil fuel perceived
to be available over some future period of time. As those resources/reserves
are depleted over time, additional amounts of fossil fuels are
inventoried. Throughout most of this century, for example, crude
oil reserves in the United States have represented a 10-14-yr
supply. For the last 50 yr, resource crude oil estimates have
presented about a 60-70-yr supply for the United States. Division
of reserve or resource estimates by current or projected annual
consumption therefore is circular in reasoning and can lead to
highly erroneous conclusions. Production histories of fossil fuels
are driven more by demand than by the geologic abundance of the
resource.
Examination of some energy resources with well-documented histories
leads to two conceptual models that relate production to price.
The closed-market model assumes that there is only one source
of energy available. Although the price initially may fall because
of economies of scale long term, prices rise as the energy source
is depleted and it becomes progressively more expensive to extract.
By contrast, the open-market model assumes that there is a variety
of available energy sources and that competition among them leads
to long-term stable or falling prices. At the moment, the United
States and the world approximate the open-market model, but in
the long run the supply of fossil fuel is finite, and prices inevitably
will rise unless alternate energy sources substitute for fossil
energy supplies; however, there appears little reason to suspect
that long-term price trends will rise significantly over the next
few decades.』
Introduction
Rationales for Neo-Malthusian and Cornucopian viewpoints
Neo-Malthusian viewpoint
Cornucopian viewpoint
The debate
The nature of resources and resource assessment
Reserves
Resources
Perceptions related to resource and reserve assessments
Communicating information on resources to nongeologists
Driving forces behind production histories
M. King Hubbert's predictions
Coal in England from 1550 to 1700
Whale oil in 19th century America
Pennsylvania anthracite
British coal industry from 1830 to 1995
Long-term production and price trends
The future of the oil and gas industry
“A sharp rise in energy prices is inevitable because we are
rapidly depleting energy resources” - true or false?
“Those countries with the most oil reserves will control the
world's oil market in the coming decades” - true or false?
“Although a decline in U.S. crude oil production is inevitable,
that decline will take place over many decades” - true or false?
“North America is a mature area in regard to petroleum exploration
and no large oil or gas fields remain to be discovered” - true
or false?
Conclusions
References cited