『（Abstract）
　The Olduvai theory is defined by the ratio of world energy production and population. It states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930-2030. After more than a century of strong growth - energy production per capita peaked in 1979. The Olduvai theory explains the 1979 peak and the subsequent decline. Moreover, it says that energy production per capita will fall to its 1930 value by 2030, thus giving Industrial Civilization a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years. This analysis predicts that the collapse will be strongly correlated with an ‘epidemic’ of permanent blackouts of high-voltage electric power networks - worldwide.

Key Words: Olduvai theory; energy; population; industrial civilization; overshoot; electricity; collapse』

『（要旨）
　オルドバイ仮説は、世界のエネルギー生産量と人口の比により定義される。この仮説は産業文明の寿命が100年以下ないしその程度であることを示している：1930年〜2030年。１世紀以上にわたる著しい成長の後、一人当りエネルギー生産量は1979年にピークに達した。オルドバイ仮説は1979年のピークとその後の減退を説明する。さらに、一人当りエネルギー生産量は2030年に1930年レベルまで下降し、そのために産業文明の寿命は100年以下ないしその程度となることを述べている。この分析は、崩壊が世界的な高圧電力網の永続的な停電の「流行」と強く関連することになると予測している。』

Introduction
　Definition
　Civilization and ready kilowatt
Energy and Civilization
　Bottom line
Evolution of an idea
World models, etc.
The Olduvai theory: 1930-2030
　Eight events
　Example
　Question
Summary and conclusions
Acknowledgments
References

Figure 1. World, OPEC, and Non-OPEC Oil Production Notes: (1) World oil production is forecast to peak in 2006. (2) The OPEC/non-OPEC crossover event occurs in 2008. (3) The OPEC nations' rate of oil production from 1985 to 1999 increased by 9.4 times that of the non -OPEC nations. Figure 4. The Olduvai Theory: 1930-2030. Notes: (1) 1930 => Industrial Civilization began when (the world average energy production (use) per person) reached 30% of its peak value. (2) 1979 => the world average energy production (use) per person reached its peak value of 11.15 boe/c. (3) 1999 => The end of cheap energy. (4) 2000 => Start of the "Jerusalem Jihad." (5) 2006 => Predicted peak of world oil production (Figure 1, this paper). (6) 2008 => The OPEC crossover event (Figure 1). (7) 2012 => Permanent blackouts occur worldwide. (8) 2030 => Industrial Civilization ends when the world average energy production (use) per person falls to its 1930 value. (9) Observe that there are three intervals of decline in the Olduvai schema: slope, slide and cliff - each steeper than the previous. (10) The small cartoons stress that electricity is the essential end-use energy for Industrial Civilization. 〔Duncan,R.C.(2000): World energy production, population growth, and the road to the Olduvai Gorge. The Pardee Keynote Symposia, Geological Society of America, Summit 2000 in Reno, Nevada on November 13, 2000. Population and Environment, May-June, 2001, 22(5).から〕

• Duncan,R.C.(2005-2006): The Olduvai Theory: Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization. The Social Contract, 16(2), Winter 2005-2006, 134-144.

• Olduvai theory　　http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olduvai_theory
  　Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaの中のページ。
  『The Olduvai theory was first introduced by Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D. in 1989. He presented it in his paper, "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge", at the Summit 2000 Pardee Keynote Symposia of the Geological Society of America, on November 13, 2000. The name is a reference to the Olduvai Gorge in Africa. The Olduvai theory provides a modern argument supporting the Malthusian catastrophe.
  The Olduvai theory states that the industrial civilization (using a special definition - see below) will have a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years.』
• The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization　　http://www.oilcrisis.com/duncan/olduvai.htm
  　The Coming Global Oil Crisisの『Duncan』の中のページ。
  

  1. Pre-Industrial Phase [c. 3,000,000 BC to 1765] A = Tool making begins (c. 3,000,000 BC) B = Fire use begins (c. 1,000,000 BC) C = Neolithic Agricultural Revolution (c. 8,000 BC) D = Watt's steam engine, 1765 Interval D-E is a transition period. 2. Industrial Phase [1930 to 2025, estimated] E = Industrial Civilization is defined to begin in 1930 when the leading-edge value of energy-use per person reached 37% of its peak value. F = Peak of Industrial Civilization, c. 1978: confirmed by historic data published by BP, IEA, USCB, UN, etc. G = World average energy-use per person continues to fall, 1996 H = Industrial Civilization is defined to end when energy-use per person shrinks to 37% of its peak value, forecast to occur by 2025. Life-expectancy (X) is estimated to be less than 100 years. Interval H-I is a transition period. 3. Post-Industrial Phase [c. 2100 and beyond] J, K, and L = Recurring future attempts at industrialization fail. 〔The Coming Global Oil Crisisの『Duncan』の中の『The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization』から〕

• The Olduvai Theory:　Sliding Towards a Post-Industrial Stone Age　　http://dieoff.org/page125.htm
  　DIE OFFの中のページ。
  

  Figure 2. World Average Energy-Use Per Person Comparison of Four Sets of Historic Data "BOE" means Barrels of Oil Equivalent 〔DIE OFFの中の『The Olduvai Theory:　Sliding Towards a Post-Industrial Stone Age』から〕

  
  The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge　　http://www.dieoff.com/page224.htm
• World Energy Production, Population Growth, And The Road to the Olduvai Gorge　　http://www.mnforsustain.org/oil_duncan_r_olduvai_theory.htm
  　Minnesotans For Sustainabilityの中のページ。