『Abstracts
This paper, analyses the factors impacting the price of crude
oil in order to examine the likely evolution of the oil market
and attempts to answer the question, whether cheap oil is already
a thing of the past. Based on data made publicly available mostly
by the major oil companies, it examines the effects of demand
and supply, the evolution of world oil reserves, the trends in
new discoveries of new oilfields, the evolution of world Gross
Domestic Product (GDP), and the depletion of oil resources. The
analysis concludes that the world peak in conventional oil production
- the point beyond which oil production will irreversibly start
declining - is approaching and will be reached, even according
to the most optimistic scenarios, before 2040 and quite possibly
much sooner. If the appropriate solutions for substituting crude
oil and for conserving the use of energy are not implemented in
time, then the current upward trend in oil prices is bound to
continue.
Keywords: Peak oil; Depletion; Discoveries』
1. Introduction
2. The price of oil
3. Factors influencing price
3.1. Demand
3.2. New discoveries
3.3. Oil reserves
3.4. Production
4. Production forecasts
4.1. The peak oil theory and Hubbert's curve
4.2. Forecasting the peak in global oil production capacity
5. The depleting global oil production base
6. Alternative fuels and new technologies
7. Conclusions
References