『Abstract
In this paper, the possible substitution of conventional with
non conventional oil is studied using system dynamics models.
The model proposed in this paper is based on geological, economic
and technological aspects, and it fits approximately the behaviour
observed by Hubbert. A first validation of the model has been
made with the USA oil production data. These USA data show that
there is a good coincidence between our model and the reality.
This model has been expanded in order to include the substitution
of the conventional oil with the non conventional one for the
World. Two models with different ways to treat the contribution
of non conventional oil have been developed and tested: a base
model (business as usual), which extrapolates the last two decades'
growth of this type of oil into the future, and a model that explores
how much non conventional oil would be needed in order to avoid
a peak and decrease in the global non renewable fuel production.
The results show that, even under some hypotheses that we consider
optimistic, the attenuation of the peak oil decline requires more
than 10% of sustained growth of non conventional oil production
over at least the next two decades.
Keywords: Non conventional oil; Peak oil; System dynamics』
1. Introduction
2. Model of oil production. The USA case
3. Model of non conventional world oil production and demand
3.1. “Hirsch” hypothesis
3.2. Non conventional oil hypothesis
4. Simulations and scenarios
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
Appendix 1
References