de Almeida & Silva(2009)

de Almeida,P. and Silva,P.D.(2009): The peak of oil production - Timings and market recognition. Energy Policy, 37, 1267-1276.

『石油生産のピーク－タイミングと市場の認知』

『Abstract
　Energy is essential for present societies. In particular, transportation systems depend on petroleum-based fuels. That world oil production is set to pass a peak is now a reasonably accepted concept, although its date is far from consensual. In this work, we analyze the true expectations of the oil market participants about the future availability of this fundamental energy source. We study the evolution through time of the curves of crude oil futures prices, and we conclude that the market participants, among them the crude oil producers, already expect a near-term peak of oil production. This agrees with many technical predictions for the date of peak production, including our own, that point to peak dates around the end of the present decade. If this scenario is confirmed, it can cause serious social and economical problems because societies will have little time to perform the necessary adjustments.

keywords: Energy markets; Peak oil production; Oil prices』

1. Introduction
2. The peak oil problem
　2.1. Peak oil date prediction
3. Analysis of futures prices
　3.1. Oil markets and futures prices curves
　3.2. Futures prices as a predictor for peak oil
4. Conclusions
References

Table 1 Peak oil projected dates from several authors.
（いくつかのピーク・オイルの予測年）
Date of forecast
（予測年） Source
（予測者） PO date
（ピーク・オイルの予測年） Reference
（出典）

2000 Bartlett 2004-2014 Bartlett(2000)

EIA 2021-2112 Wood and Long(2000)

IEA Beyond 2020 IEA(2000)

2001 Deffeyes 2003-2008 Deffeyes(2001)

2002 Nemesis 2004-2011 Nemesis(2002)

Smith 2011-2016 Smith(2002)

2003 Simmons 2007-2009 Simmons(2003)

Deffeyes Before 2009 Deffeyes(2003)

Campbell Around 2010 Campbell(2003)

World Energy Council After 2010 WEC(2003)

Laherrere 2010-2020 Laherrere(2003)

Shell 2025 or later Davis(2003)

Lynch No visible peak Lynch(2003)

2004 EIA 2021-2112 Wood et al.(2004)

Bakhtiari 2006-2007 Bakhtiari(2004)

Skrebowaki After 2007 Skrebowski(2004)

Goodstein Before 2010 Goodstein(2004)

CERA After 2020 Jackson and Esser(2004)

2005 Koppelaar After 2010 Koppelaar(2005)

2006 Skrebowski After 2010 Skrebowski(2006)

2006 Smith 2011 Smith(2006)

Koppelaar After 2012 Koppelaar(2006)

IEA After 2030 IEA(2006)

CERA 2035 Jackson(2006)

2007 Robelius 2008-2018 Rebelius(2007)

Koppelaar 2015 Koppelaar(2007)

Laherrere About 2015 Laherrere(2007)

2008 CERA After 2017 CERA(2008)

Shell 2020 or later Shell(2008)

Table 1 **Peak oil projected dates from several authors.**
（いくつかのピーク・オイルの予測年）
Date of forecast （予測年）	Source （予測者）	PO date （ピーク・オイルの予測年）	Reference （出典）
2000	Bartlett	2004-2014	Bartlett(2000)
EIA	2021-2112	Wood and Long(2000)
IEA	Beyond 2020	IEA(2000)
2001	Deffeyes	2003-2008	Deffeyes(2001)
2002	Nemesis	2004-2011	Nemesis(2002)
Smith	2011-2016	Smith(2002)
2003	Simmons	2007-2009	Simmons(2003)
Deffeyes	Before 2009	Deffeyes(2003)
Campbell	Around 2010	Campbell(2003)
World Energy Council	After 2010	WEC(2003)
Laherrere	2010-2020	Laherrere(2003)
Shell	2025 or later	Davis(2003)
Lynch	No visible peak	Lynch(2003)
2004	EIA	2021-2112	Wood et al.(2004)
Bakhtiari	2006-2007	Bakhtiari(2004)
Skrebowaki	After 2007	Skrebowski(2004)
Goodstein	Before 2010	Goodstein(2004)
CERA	After 2020	Jackson and Esser(2004)
2005	Koppelaar	After 2010	Koppelaar(2005)
2006	Skrebowski	After 2010	Skrebowski(2006)
2006	Smith	2011	Smith(2006)
Koppelaar	After 2012	Koppelaar(2006)
IEA	After 2030	IEA(2006)
CERA	2035	Jackson(2006)
2007	Robelius	2008-2018	Rebelius(2007)
Koppelaar	2015	Koppelaar(2007)
Laherrere	About 2015	Laherrere(2007)
2008	CERA	After 2017	CERA(2008)
Shell	2020 or later	Shell(2008)

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