Mohr,S.H. and Evans,G.M.(2010): Long term prediction of unconventional oil production. Energy Policy, 38, 265-276.


 Although considerable discussion surrounds unconventional oil's ability to mitigate the effects of peaking conventional oil production, very few models of unconventional oil production exist. The aim of this article was to project unconventional oil production to determine how significant its production may be. Two models were developed to predict the unconventional oil production, one model for in situ production and the other for mining the resources. Unconventional oil production is anticipated to reach between 18 and 32 Gb/y (49-88 Mb/d) in 2076-2084, before declining. If conventional oil production is a peak production then projected unconventional oil production cannot mitigate peaking of conventional oil alone.

Keywords: Unconventional oil; Modeling; Supply』

1. Introduction
2. Model description
 2.1. Mining production
 2.2. In-situ production
3. Model calibration
 3.1. URR estimate
 3.2. SAGD plant operating conditions
 3.3. Mine operating conditions
4. Results and discussion
5. Conclusion
Appendix A. Maximum production for Green River deposit