『Abstract
Although considerable discussion surrounds unconventional oil's
ability to mitigate the effects of peaking conventional oil production,
very few models of unconventional oil production exist. The aim
of this article was to project unconventional oil production to
determine how significant its production may be. Two models were
developed to predict the unconventional oil production, one model
for in situ production and the other for mining the resources.
Unconventional oil production is anticipated to reach between
18 and 32 Gb/y (49-88 Mb/d) in 2076-2084, before declining. If
conventional oil production is a peak production then projected
unconventional oil production cannot mitigate peaking of conventional
oil alone.
Keywords: Unconventional oil; Modeling; Supply』
1. Introduction
2. Model description
2.1. Mining production
2.2. In-situ production
3. Model calibration
3.1. URR estimate
3.2. SAGD plant operating conditions
3.3. Mine operating conditions
4. Results and discussion
5. Conclusion
Acknowledgment
Appendix A. Maximum production for Green River deposit
References