『Abstract
The period from 2003 to 2008 was marked by an oil price increase
comparable to the two oil price crises in the 1970s. This paper
looks in detail at the situation of the oil price crises 30 years
ago and compares them along various aspects on the demand and
supply side with the recent price increase to identify similarities
and differences. While both oil price crises in 1973 and 1979/1980
were ultimately caused by supply actions of members of the Organisation
of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), all three oil price crises
were preceded by high demand growth. Other aspects that favoured
a high oil price in all three cases were low investments in new
oil fields, as a consequence low spare capacity, and a weak US
dollar. In addition, the recent oil price surge has been characterised
by a high global refinery utilisation and refineries that did
not adapt fast enough to the rising demand for lighter oil products.
Moreover, broader geopolitical uncertainties, combined with risks
associated with the oil trade helped push the oil price into a
triple-digit zone. Speculation played only a limited and temporary
role in accelerating price movements during the recent price increase.
Keywords: Crude oil; Oil price crisis; Price influence』
1. Introduction
2. Literature review
3. Historical context of the first two oil price crises
4. Oil price influencing factors
4.1. Demand
4.2. Supply
4.2.1. Production capacities
4.2.2. Investment activity
4.3, Refining
4.4. Geopolitics
4.4.1. Political influence
4.4.2. OPEC
4.4.3. Oil transit
4.5. Speculation
4.6. Dollar exchange rate and inflation
5. Conclusion
Acknowledgment
References