wAbstract
@In the light of the outstanding importance of hydrocarbons for
global energy, the controversy over peak oil has become both pressing
and emotionally charged. Two conflicting parties - alarmists and
optimists - hold irreconcilable positions, The shaping of the
future energy policy is presently based on modeling results and
geological considerations only. We show that the existing predictions
of the energy crisis are increasingly mixed-up with value-judgments.
The value analysis of those forecasts allows us to suggest that
at least part of the estimations are implicit reflections of predictors'
ends and values, and do not demonstrate a real ability to anticipate
future conditions. Paradoxically, the question of oil reserve
depletion is better understood when predictions are viewed as
an instrument to impose the predictors' values and intervene in
the currently bustling oil market. The intervention in the oil
prices may occur in either direction becoming a tool to justify
values rather than an instrument for the acquisition of knowledge.
Keywords: Energy crisis; Values; Political implicationsx
1. Introduction: facts and values
2. The paradox of predictions
3. Importance of planning or technical prediction
4. By predicting the future we can better understand the present
Acknowledgements
References