wAbstract
@The status of world oil reserves is a contentious issue, polarised
between advocates of peak oil who believe production will soon
decline, and major oil companies that say there is enough oil
to last for decades.
@In reality, much of the disagreement can be resolved through
clear definition of the grade, type, and reporting framework used
to estimate oil reserve volumes. While there is certainly vast
amounts of fossil fuel resources left in the ground, the volume
of oil that can be commercially exploited at prices the global
economy has become accustomed to is limited and will soon decline.
The result is that oil may soon shift from a demand-led market
to a supply constrained market.
@The capacity to meet the services provided by future liquid fuel
demand is contingent upon the rapid and immediate diversification
of the liquid fuel mix, the transition to alternative energy carriers
where appropriate, and demand side measures such as behavioural
change and adaptation. The successful transition to a poly-fuel
economy will also be judged on the adequate mitigation of environmental
and social costs.
Keywords: Liquid fuels; Peak oil; Conventional oilx
1. Introduction
2. Literature survey
3. Sources of ambiguity
@3.1. A question of cost: resources vs reserves
@3.2. A question of chance: reserves vs production
@3.3. A question of grade: conventional reserves vs unconventional
resources
@3.4. International mis-reporting and withheld information
@3.5. Caution: reserve-production ratio (R/P)
@3.6. Caution: contradictory figures
4. Global oil reserves
@4.1. Review of corrected 2P discovery data
@4.2. Published reserves less acknowledged error
@4.3. Liquid fuels demand and production forecast
5. Oil price and future resources
6. Key conclusions
References