『Abstract
Within the polarized and contentious debate over future oil supply
a growing number of commentators are forecasting a near term peak
and subsequent decline in production. But although liquid fuels
form the foundation of modern industrial economies, the growing
debate on ‘peak oil’ has relatively little influence on energy
and climate policy. With this in mind, the UK Energy Research
Centre (UKERC) has conducted an independent, thorough and systematic
review of the evidence, with the aim of establishing the current
state of knowledge, identifying key uncertainties and improving
consensus. The study focuses upon the physical depletion of conventional
oil in the period to 2030 and includes an in-depth literature
review, analysis of industry databases and a detailed comparison
of global supply forecasts. This Communication summaries the main
findings of the UKERC study. A key conclusion is that a peak of
conventional oil production before 2030 appears likely and there
is a significant risk of a peak before 2020.
Keywords: Depletion; Peak oil; Oil supply forecasting』
1. Introduction
2. Context
3. Data quality and interpretation
4. Key variables
5. Methods of estimating resource size
6. Methods of forecasting future supply
7. The global ultimately recoverable resource
8. The global supply outlook
References