『Abstract
The assessment of future global oil production presented in the
IEA's World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO 2008) is divided into 6 fractions;
four relate to crude oil, one to non-conventional oil, and the
final fraction is natural-gas-liquids (NGL). Using the production
parameter, depletion-rate-of-recoverable-resources, we have analyzed
the four crude oil fractions and found that the 75 Mb/d of crude
oil production forecast for year 2030 appears significantly overstated,
and is more likely to be in the region of 55 Mb/d. Moreover, analysis
of the other fractions strongly suggests lower than expected production
levels. In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in
2030 of 75 Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts.
The connection between economic growth and energy use is fundamental
in the IEA's present modelling approach. Since our forecast sees
little chance of a significant increase in global oil production,
our findings suggest that the “policy makers, investors and end
users” to whom WEO 2008 is addressed should rethink their future
plans for economic growth. The fact that global oil production
has very probably passed its maximum implies that we have reached
the Peak of the Oil Age.
Keywords: Future oil supply; Peak oil; World Energy Outlook 2008』
1. Introduction
1.1. Aim of this study
1.2. Data gathering
2. Future oil needs - the demand scenario
3. The outlook for crude oil production
3.1. Crude oil 0- currently producing fields
3.2. Fields yet to be developed
3.3. Fields yet to be found
3.4. Additional EOR
3.5. Crude oil - total in the future
4. Non-conventional oil
4.1. Oil sand
4.2. Extra-heavy oil
4.3. Gas-to-liquids (GTL)
4.4. Coal-to-liquids (CTL)
4.5. Chemical additives
4.6. Summary of non-conventional oil
5. Natural gas liquids (NGL)
6. Conclusions
Acknowledgements
References