Chenglin,L. and Charpentier,R.R.(2010): Quality of the log-geometric distribution extrapolation for smaller undiscovered oil and gas pool size. Natural Resources Research, 19(1), 11-21.


 The U.S. Geological Survey procedure for the estimation of the general form of the parent distribution requires that the parameters of the log-geometric distribution be calculated and analyzed for the sensitivity of these parameters to different conditions. In this study, we derive the shape factor of a log-geometric distribution from the ratio of frequencies between adjacent bins. The shape factor has a log straight-line relationship with the ratio of frequencies. Additionally, the calculation equations of a ratio of the mean size to the lower size-class boundary are deduced. For a specific log-geometric distribution, we find that the ratio of the mean size to the lower size-class boundary is the same. We apply our analysis to simulations based on oil and gas pool distributions from four petroleum systems of Alberta, Canada and four generated distributions. Each petroleum system in Alberta has a different shape factor. Generally, the shape factors in the four petroleum systems stabilize with the increase of discovered pool numbers. For a log-geometric distribution, the shape factor becomes stable when discovered pool numbers exceed 50 and the shape factor is influenced by the exploration efficiency when the exploration efficiency is less than 1. The simulation results show that calculated shape factors increase with those of the parent distributions, and undiscovered oil and gas resources estimated through the log-geometric distribution extrapolation are smaller than the actual values.

Key Words: Pareto; shape factor; simulation; sensitivity analyses; resource appraisal.』

Parameter derivations
 The shape factor
 The ratio of the mean size to the lower size-class boundary
Precision of parameters
 Petroleum systems in Alberta
 Generated distributions
  Different discovery process
  Different parent distributions