『(Abstract)
A growing number of commentators are forecasting a near-term
peak and subsequent terminal decline in the global production
of conventional oil as a result of the physical depletion of the
resource. These forecasts frequently rely on the estimates of
the ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of different regions,
obtained through the use of curve-fitting to historical trends
in discovery or production. Curve-fitting was originally pioneered
by M. King Hubbert in the context of an earlier debate about the
future of the US oil production. However, despite their widespread
use, curve-fitting techniques remain the subject of considerable
controversy. This article classifies and explains these techniques
and identifies both their relative suitability in different circumstances
and the level of confidence that may be placed in their results.
This article discusses the interpretation and importance of the
URR estimates, indicates the relationship between curve fitting
and other methods of estimating the URR and classifies the techniques
into three groups. It then investigates each group in turn, indicating
their historical origins, contemporary application and major strengths
and weaknesses. The article then uses illustrative data from a
number of oil-producing regions to assess whether these techniques
produce consistent results as well as highlight some of the statistical
issues raised and suggesting how they may be addressed. The article
concludes that the applicability of curve-fitting techniques is
more limited than adherents claim and that the confidence bounds
on the results are wider than usually assumed.
Key Words: Petroleum resource estimation; peak oil.』
Introduction
Methods for estimating ultimately recoverable resources
Field-size distributions
Discovery process modelling
Curve-fitting
Production over time techniques
Discovery over time techniques
Discovery over effort techniques
Consistency of curve-fitting techniques
Reconciling curve-fitting with econometrics
Summary
Acknowledgments
References
Box 1. The Hubbert logistic model of oil depletion
Box 2. Understanding reserve estimates
Box 3. Understanding cumulative discovery estimates