Executive Summary / Key Findings........................................................................................... 5
Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 18
Scope and methodology ........................................................................................................... 20
　Types of oil........................................................................................................................... 20
　　Conventional oil ............................................................................................................... 20
　　Natural gas liquids (NGL)................................................................................................ 21
　　Tar sands .......................................................................................................................... 21
　　Oil shales .......................................................................................................................... 21
　Scope and methodology ....................................................................................................... 22
　Differences in scope and methodology to other studies....................................................... 23
Assessment of future oil supply ............................................................................................... 25
　Basic concepts - understanding the future of oil ................................................................. 25
　　Reserves ........................................................................................................................... 25
　　Discoveries ....................................................................................................................... 33
　　Estimates of the ultimate recovery................................................................................... 37
　　Production patterns........................................................................................................... 38
　　Peak oil is now ................................................................................................................. 43
　The position of the IEA and industry................................................................................... 49
Scenario of future oil supply .................................................................................................... 52
　Regional scenarios................................................................................................................ 52
　　Middle East ...................................................................................................................... 53
　　OECD North America...................................................................................................... 55
　　Transition Economies....................................................................................................... 60
　　Africa............................................................................................................................... 62
　　Latin America................................................................................................................... 64
　　OECD Europe .................................................................................................................. 65
　　China ............................................................................................................................... 66
　　East Asia........................................................................................................................... 67
　　South Asia ........................................................................................................................ 68
　　OECD Pacific................................................................................................................... 69
　World scenario ..................................................................................................................... 69
　　EWG scenario .................................................................................................................. 69
　　Comparison of EWG scenario results with other projections .......................................... 70
Conclusions .............................................................................................................................. 73
Annex ...................................................................................................................................... 74
　Annex 1:
　　US oil production in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico ...................................... 74
　　Alaska.............................................................................................................................. 74
　　Gulf of Mexico................................................................................................................. 75
　Annex 2:
　　Critique of Oil Supply Projections by USGS, EIA and IEA............................ 77
　　US Geological Survey (USGS) ........................................................................................ 77
　　The US “Energy Information Administration” (EIA)...................................................... 81
　　The International Energy Agency (IEA) .......................................................................... 83
　　Final remark ..................................................................................................................... 92
　Annex 3:
　　Non-conventional oil ............................................................................................ 93
　　Canadian tar sands and oil shales . hope or nightmare.................................................... 93
　Annex 4:
　　International oil companies .................................................................................. 98
Literature ............................................................................................................................... 101

Figure 7: Oil production world summary Energy Watch Group(2008)によるCrude oil - The supply outlookから