Attarian,J.(2002): The coming end of cheap oil: To Hubbert's peak and beyond. The Social Contract, 12 (Summer 2002), 276-286.


『Recently several petroleum geologists have predicted that within this decade, the world's annual output of conventional (easily accessed and extracted crude) oil will peak, then irreversibly decline. In Hubbert's Peak (reviewed in The Social Contract, vol. XII, no.2), an excellent, lucid text, Kenneth Deffeyes, a Princeton professor emeritus and former Shell Oil research geologist, makes a persuasive case that output will peak around 2005, give or take a few years.
 Confirming that resources are finite, this debunks the cornucopianism of the late Julian Simon. More importantly, the coming end of cheap oil has disastrous implications. It makes radical reforms, including an immigration moratorium, imperative.』

『最近、何人かの石油地質学者が、在来型(たやすく近づけて取り出せる原油)石油の世界年間産出量がピークに達し、それから非可逆的に減少するであろうと予測している。優れたわかりやすいテキストであるハバート・ピーク(The Social Contract, vol. XII, no.2にレビューされている)で、プリンストン大学名誉教授でシェル石油の前研究地質学者であるケネス・ドフェイスは、産出量は数年の前後があるが2005年頃にピークに達するであろうという説得力のある主張を唱えている。

Hubbert and his followers
Debunking the cornucopians
Flawed cornucopian attacks on Hubbert
The chimera of alternatives
Connecting the dots: The grim consequences
Recommended web sites on the oil crisis