Haftendorn,C., Kemfert,C. and Holz,F.(2012): What about coal? Interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market until 2030. Energy Policy, 48, 274-283.


 Because of economic growth and a strong increase in global energy demand the demand for fossil fuels and therefore also greenhouse gas emissions are increasing, although climate policy should lead to the opposite effect. The coal market is of special relevance as coal is available in many countries and often the first choice to meet energy demand. In this paper we assess possible interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market. Possible market adjustments between demand regions through market effects are investigated with a numerical model of the global steam coal market: the “COALMOD-World” model. This equilibrium model computes future trade flows, infrastructure investments and prices until 2030. We investigate three specific designs of climate policy: a unilateral European climate policy, an Indonesian export-limiting policy and a fast-roll out of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the broader context of climate policy and market constraints. We find that market adjustment effects in the coal market can have significant positive and negative impacts on the effectiveness of climate policies.

Keywords: Climate policy; Future coal production; Numerical modeling』

1. Introduction
2. Assessment of positive modeling approaches
 2.1. Overview of possible modeling approaches
 2.2. Advantages of partial equilibrium models
 2.3. Description of the CLALMOD-World model
3. Climate policy scenarios with the COAL-MOD-World model
 3.1. Worldwide climate policy
 3.2. Unilateral European climate policy
 3.3. Yasuni(iの頭は´)-type supply-side policy in Indonesia
 3.4. CCS fast roll-out
4. Conclusions and policy recommendations
Appendix A. The COALMOD-World model
Appendix B. Demand elasticitys