『Abstract
Because of economic growth and a strong increase in global energy
demand the demand for fossil fuels and therefore also greenhouse
gas emissions are increasing, although climate policy should lead
to the opposite effect. The coal market is of special relevance
as coal is available in many countries and often the first choice
to meet energy demand. In this paper we assess possible interactions
between climate policies and the global steam coal market. Possible
market adjustments between demand regions through market effects
are investigated with a numerical model of the global steam coal
market: the “COALMOD-World” model. This equilibrium model computes
future trade flows, infrastructure investments and prices until
2030. We investigate three specific designs of climate policy:
a unilateral European climate policy, an Indonesian export-limiting
policy and a fast-roll out of carbon capture and storage (CCS)
in the broader context of climate policy and market constraints.
We find that market adjustment effects in the coal market can
have significant positive and negative impacts on the effectiveness
of climate policies.
Keywords: Climate policy; Future coal production; Numerical modeling』
1. Introduction
2. Assessment of positive modeling approaches
2.1. Overview of possible modeling approaches
2.2. Advantages of partial equilibrium models
2.3. Description of the CLALMOD-World model
3. Climate policy scenarios with the COAL-MOD-World model
3.1. Worldwide climate policy
3.2. Unilateral European climate policy
3.3. Yasuni(iの頭は´)-type supply-side policy
in Indonesia
3.4. CCS fast roll-out
4. Conclusions and policy recommendations
Acknowledgments
Appendix A. The COALMOD-World model
Appendix B. Demand elasticitys
References