『Abstract
　Based on economic and policy considerations that appear to be unconstrained by geophysics, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) generated forty carbon production and emissions scenarios. In this paper, we develop a base-case scenario for global coal production based on the physical multi-cycle Hubbert analysis of historical production data. Areas with large resources but little production history, such as Alaska and the Russian Far East, are treated as sensitivities on top of this base-case, producing an additional 125 Gt of coal. The value of this approach is that it provides a reality check on the magnitude of carbon emissions in a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. The resulting base-case is significantly below 36 of the 40 carbon emission scenarios from the IPCC. The global peak of coal production from existing coalfields is predicted to occur close to the year 2011. The peak coal production rate is 160 EJ/y, and the peak carbon emissions from coal burning are 4.0 Gt C (15 Gt CO2) per year. After 2011, the production rates of coal and CO2 decline, reaching 1990 levels by the year 2037, and reaching 50％ of the peak value in the year 2047. It is unlikely that future mines will reverse the trend predicted in this BAU scenario.

Keywords: Carbon emissions; IPCC scenarios; Coal production peak; Coal supply; Conservation; Efficiency』

1. Introduction
2. A multi-Hubbert cycle approach
3. Global coal production and CO2 emissions
4. Error analysis
5. The IPCC coal production scenarios
6. Sensitivity analysis and future work
7. Summary and conclusions
Acknowledgements
Appendix A. Why do Hubbert cycles exist?
Appendix B. Matching the logistic and normal distributions
Appendix C. Heating values and CO2 emissions for coal
Appendix. Supplementary data
References

Fig. 2. The best multi-Hubbert cycle match of the historical rate of production of energy in coal of all ranks worldwide. The year of peak production is 2011, and peak coal energy production (higher heating value) is 160 EJ/y. Data sources: US DOE EIA, (www.eia.doe.gov/fuelcoal.html) IEA (www.iea.org), and Supplemental Materials to (Mohr and Evans, 2009) [9]. Fig. 3. The best multi-Hubbert cycle match of the historical CO2 emissions from coal burning worldwide. The year of peak emissions is 2011, and the peak rate of emissions is 15 Gt/yr. Data sources: US DOE EIA, (www.eia.doe.gov/fuelcoal.html) IEA (www.iea.org), and Supplemental Materials to Mohr and Evans (2009) [9]. Fig. 4. The best multi-Hubbert cycle match of the historical cumulative production of coal of all ranks worldwide. The ultimate higher heating value of global coal production is 13,200 EJ. Data sources: US DOE EIA, (www.eia.doe.gov/fuelcoal.html) IEA (www.iea.org), and Supplemental Materials to Mohr and Evans (2009) [9]. Fig. 5. The best multi-Hubbert cycle match of the historical rate of CO2 emissions worldwide. The predicted cumulative emissions are 1200 Gt CO2. Data sources: US DOE EIA, (www.eia.doe.gov/fuelcoal.html) IEA (www.iea.org), and Supplemental Materials to Mohr and Evans (2009) [9]. Fig. 6. A semi-logarithmic plot of carbon emissions from coal burning worldwide. The year of peak emissions is 2011, and the peak rate of emissions is 4.0 Gt C/yr. In 1990, a benchmark year for IPCC, the calculated rate of emissions was 2.4 Gt C/yr. The rates of decline from the peak are 1.9% per year until 2046, and 3.6% thereafter. Data sources: US DOE EIA, (www.eia.doe.gov/fuelcoal.html) IEA (www.iea.org), and Supplemental Materials to Mohr and Evans (2009) [9]. Fig. 8. The best multi-Hubbert cycle match of the historical rate of production of energy in coal of all ranks worldwide (thick black line). The 40 IPCC coal energy production scenarios are the thin color curves. Note that most of the IPCC scenarios seem to have little to do with reality predicted by the actual coal production data. In the year 2100, the physical Earth will not be producing 5-7 times more than at the peak in 2011. Data sources: US DOE EIA, (www.eia.doe.gov/fuelcoal.html) IEA (www. iea.org), Supplemental Materials to Mohr and Evans (2009) [9], and IPCC (2000) [10]. Fig. 9. The best multi-Hubbert cycle match of the historical rate of carbon emissions from coal of all ranks worldwide (thick black line). The 40 IPCC coal emissions scenarios are the thin color curves. Data sources US DOE EIA, (www.eia.doe.gov/fuelcoal.html) IEA (www.iea.org), Supplemental Materials to Mohr and Evans (2009) [9], and IPCC (2000) [10]. Patzek and Croft(2010)による『A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis』から