『(Abstract)
The geological coal resource of the U.S. is abundant and proved
coal reserves are listed as the world's largest. However, the
reserves are unevenly distributed and located in a small number
of states, giving them major influence over future production.
A long history of coal mining provides detailed time series of
production and reserve estimates, which can be used to identify
historical trends. In reviewing the historical evolution of coal
reserves, one can state that the trend here does not point toward
any major increases in available recoverable reserves; rather
the opposite is true due to restrictions and increased focus on
environmental impacts from coal extraction. Future coal production
will not be entirely determined by what is geologically available,
but rather by the fraction of that amount that is practically
recoverable. Consequently, the historical trend toward reduced
recoverable amounts is likely to continue into the future, with
even stricter regulations imposed by increased environmental concern.
Long-term outlooks can be created in many ways, but ultimately
the production must be limited by recoverable volumes since coal
is a finite resource. The geologic amounts of coal are of much
less importance to future production than the practically recoverable
volumes. The geological coal supply might be vast, but the important
question is how large the share that can be extracted under present
restrictions are and how those restrictions will develop in the
future. Production limitations might therefore appear much sooner
than previously expected.
Key Words: U.S. coal reserves; future production; peak coal.』
Introduction
Aim of this study
Coal resources, reserves, and recoverable volumes
What matters for future coal production?
Technological progress and future coal prices
Reassessment of coal in the light of future energy policies
Evolution of U.S. recoverable coal reserves
Historical trends in U.S. recoverable coal reserves
Modeling future production
Depletion rate investigations
Future production outlooks
Conclusions
Acknowledgments
References