Murphy,D.J. and Hall,C.A.S.(2011): Energy
return on investment, peak oil, and the end of economic growth.
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1219,
52-72.
『投資に対するエネルギー利益とピークオイルと経済成長の終焉』
『（Abstract）
Economic growth over the past 40 years has used increasing quantities
of fossil energy, and most importantly oil. Yet, our ability to
increase the global supply of conventional crude oil much beyond
current levels is doubtful, which may pose a problem for continued
economic growth. Our research indicates that, due to the depletion
of conventional, and hence cheap, crude oil supplies (i.e., peak
oil), increasing the supply of oil in the future would require
exploiting lower quality resources (i.e., expensive), and thus
could occur only at high prices. This situation creates a system
of feedbacks that can be aptly described as an economic growth
paradox: increasing the oil supply to support economic growth
will require high oil prices that will undermine that economic
growth. From this we conclude that the economic growth of the
past 40 years is unlikely to continue in the long term unless
there is some remarkable change in how we manage our economy.
Keywords: economic growth; peak oil; EROI; Hubbert; net energy』
Introduction
Objectives
Economic growth and business cycles from an energy perspective
Peak oil and net energy
Peak oil
Summary of peak oil
Critiques of peak oil theory and our response
Energy return on investment and net energy
Summary of net energy
Peak oil, net energy, and oil price
Summary
Synthesis
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of interest
References
/Image92.gif)
Figure 15. Estimations of the cost of oil production for
various locations and types of resources around the world. Data
from CERA.
/Image93.gif)
Figure 16. Oil production costs from various sources as
a function of the EROI of those sources. The dotted lines
represent the real oil price averaged over both recessions and
expansions during the period from 1970 through 2008. EROI data
for oil sands come from Murphy and Hall, the EROI values for
both Saudi Crude and ultradeep water were interpolated from other
EROI data in
Murphy and Hall, data on the EROI of average global oil production
are from Gagnon et al., and the data on the cost of production
come from CERA.
/Image94.gif)
Figure 17. Division of the age of oil into three eras.
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