『Abstract
This paper compares battery electric vehicles (BEV) to hydrogen
fuel cell electric vehicles (PCEV) and hydrogen fell cell plug-in
hybrid vehicles (FCHEV). Qualitative comparisons of technologies
and infrastructural requirements, and quantitative comparisons
of the lifecycle cost of the powertrain over 100,000 mile are
undertaken, accounting for capital and fuel costs. A common vehicle
platform is assumed. The 2030 scenario is discussed and compared
to a conventional gasoline-fuelled internal combustion engine
(ICE) powertrain. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis shows that
in 2030 FCEVs could achieve lifecycle cost parity with conventional
gasoline vehicles. However, both the BEV and FCHEV have significantly
lower lifecycle costs. In the 2030 scenario, powertrain lifecycle
costs of FCEVs range from $7360 to $22,580, whereas those for
BEVs range from $6460 to $11,420 and FCHEVs, from $4310 to $12,540.
All vehicle platforms exhibit significant cost sensitivity to
powertrain capital cost. The BEV and FCHEV are relatively insensitive
to electricity costs but the FCHEV and FCV are sensitive to hydrogen
cost. The BEV and FCHEV are reasonably similar in lifecycle cost
and one may offer an advantage over the other depending on driving
patterns. A key conclusion is that the best path for future development
of FCEVs is the FCHEV.
Keywords: Fuel cell vehicle; Electric vehicle; Hybrid vehicle』
1. Introduction
2. The technology
3. Cost prediction analysis
3.1. Capital cost
3.2. Running cost
3.3. End-of life cost
3.4. Results and discussion
3.4.1. Powertrain technology options
3.4.2. BEV range
3.4.3. Other considerations and sensitivities
4. Conclusions
References