『Abstract
Fuel cells have gained considerable interest as a means to efficiently
concert the energy stored in gases like hydrogen and methane into
electricity. Further developing fuel cells in order to reach cost,
safety and reliability levels at which their widespread use becomes
feasible is an essential prerequisite for the potential establishment
of a ‘hydrogen economy’. A major factor currently obviating the
extensive use of fuel cells is their relatively high costs. At
present we estimate these at about 1100 Euro(2005)/kW for an 80
kW fuel cell system but notice that specific costs vary markedly
with fuel cell system power capacity. We analyze past fuel cell
cost reduction for both individual manufactures and the global
market. We determine learning curves, with fairly high uncertainty
ranges, for three different types of fuel cell technology - AFC,
PAFC and PEMFC - each manufactured by a different producer. For
PEMFC technology we also calculate a global learning curve, characterised
by a learning rate of 21％ with an error margin of 4％. Given their
respective uncertainties, this global learning rate value is in
agreement with those we find for different manufactures. In contrast
to some other new energy technologies, R&D still plays a major
role in today's fuel cell improvement process and hence probably
explains a substantial part of our observed cost reductions. The
remaining share of these cost reductions derives from learning-by-doing
proper. Since learning-by-doing usually involves a learning rate
of typically 20％, the residual value for pure learning we find
for fuel cells is relatively low. In an ideal scenario for fuel
cell technology we estimate a bottom-line for specific (80 kW
system) manufacturing costs of 95 Euro(2005)/kW. Although learning
curves observed in the past constitute no guarantee for sustained
cost reductions in the future, when we assume global total learning
at the pace calculated here as the only cost reduction mechanism,
this ultimate cost figure is reached after a large-scale deployment
about 10 times doubled with respect to the cumulative installed
fuel cell capacity to date.
Keywords: Technology innovation; Learning curve; Fuel cell』
1. Introduction
2. Learning by manufactures
2.1. Pratt & Whitney aircraft
2.2. UTC power
2.3. Ballard
3. Global learning
3.1. Cumulative PEMFC capacity
3.2.PEMFC cost breakdown
3.3. Global PEMFC cost development
4. Discussion
5. Conclusion
Acknowledgements
References