『Abstract
Assuming that global oil production peaked, this paper uses scenario
analysis to show the economic effects of a possible supply shortage
and corresponding rise in oil prices in the next decade on different
sectors in Germany and other major economies such as the US, Japan,
China, the OPEC or Russia. Due to the price-inelasticity of oil
demand the supply shortage leads to a sharp increase in oil prices
in the second scenario, with high effects on GDP comparable to
the magnitude of the global financial crises in 2008/09. Oil exporting
countries benefit from high oil prices, whereas oil importing
countries are negatively affected. Generally, the effects in the
third scenario are significantly smaller than in the second, showing
that energy efficiency measures and the switch to renewable energy
sources decreases the countries' dependence on oil imports and
hence reduces their vulnerability to oil price shocks on the world
market
Keywords: Peak oil; Economic oil price effects; Global energy-economy-environment
model』528**
1. Introduction
2. Model and scenario setup
3. Results
3.1. Oil price
3.2. Energy supply and demand
3.3. Macroeconomic effects
4. Conclusions
References