『Abstract
A group of petroleum analysts using the so-called Hubbert method
have been arguing that resource scarcity will soon have a severe
impact on the global economy. Although past efforts have not yielded
valid results, the new researchers claim that using a proprietary
database and field production data, they are able to generate
creaming curves which show the ultimate recovery in any given
area and for the globe as a whole. However, careful examination
of the body of work shows that the authors are inconsistent in
their arguments, rely on assumptions in key areas and make numerous
unsupported assertions. Most of their key findings appear to be
no more than a misunderstanding of statistical analysis. Not only
can some of their methods be demonstrated to be ineffective, and
their conclusions repeatedly failed, but the authors publish data
and cases selectively, omitting those which contradict their theories,
implying that the work is unreliable.
Keywords: Hubbert curve; petroleum supply; resource pessimism;
junk science; Malthusian bias』
(Introduction)
The Hubbert curve
Revival of the Hubbert method
The new research
Opaque work, unproven assertions
Technical data
Unsubstantiated results
Misinterpretation of causality
Production profile to estimate field size
Effect of these errors on the research results
Conclusions
Notes
References