『Abstract
The intricate dynamics of world oil production are traditionally
modeled by a single differential equation, the Hubbert model,
arguably too simple in nature. In this article, the Hubbert model
is extended to higher-order models which break the symmetry of
the Hubbert curve, one of its main controversial features. Our
numerical results exhibit a shift of the peak into the future
followed by a steeper decline in production, resembling recent
production curves of some natural gas fields. Finally, a new supply-demand-reserves
model is introduced which is capable of reproducing the US peak,
based on more realistic assumptions for production changes.
Keywords: Hubbert; oil peak; supply-demand model』
Introduction
The Hubbert model
Supply-demand model
Supply-demand-reserves model (A)
Supply-demand-reserves model (B)
Discussion and conclusions
Acknowledgments
References