『Abstract
A theoretical model of conventional oil production has been developed.
The model does not assume Hubbert's bell curve, an asymmetric
bell curve, or a reserve-to-production ratio method is correct,
and does not use oil production data as an input. The theoretical
model is in close agreement with actual production data until
the 1979 oil crisis, with an R2 value of greater than
0.98. Whilst the theoretical model indicates that an ideal production
curve is slightly asymmetric, which differs from Hubbert's curve,
the ideal model compares well with the Hubbert model, with R2
values in excess of 0.95. Amending the theoretical model to take
into account the 1979 oil crisis, and assuming the ultimately
recoverable resources are in the range of 2-3 trillion barrels,
the amended model predicts conventional oil production to peak
between 2010 and 2025. The amended model, for the case when the
ultimately recoverable resources is 2.2 trillion barrels, indicates
that oil production peaks in 2013.
Key Words: Peak oil; modeling; Hubbert's curve.』
Introduction
Review of literature
Model
Discoveries
Reservoir production
Results and discussion
Conclusion
Appendix A: The rate difference
Appendix B: Coefficient of determination
Appendix X: Determining the constants
Appendix D: Amended model
Nomenclature
References