@Energy Security and Global Warming are analysed as 21st century sustainability threats.
@Best estimates of future energy availability are derived as an Energy Reference Case (ERC). An explicit economic growth model is used to interpret the impact of the ERC on economic growth. The model predicts a divergence from 20th century equilibrium conditions in economic growth and socio-economic welfare is only stabilised under optimistic assumptions that demands a paradigm shift in contemporary economic thought and focused attention from policy makers.
@Fossil fuel depletion also constrains the maximum extent of Global warming. Carbon emissions from the ERC comply nominally with the B1 scenario, which is the lowest emissions case considered by the IPCC. The IPCC predicts a temperature response within acceptance limits of the Global warming debate for the B1 scenario. The carbon feedback cycle, used in the IPCC models, is shown an invalid for low-emissions scenarios and an alternative carbon cycle reduces the temperature response for the ERC considerably compared to the IPCC predictions.
@Our analysis proposes that the extent of Global Warming may be acceptable and preferable compared to the socio-economic consequences of not exploiting fossil fuel reserves to their full technical potential.
Keywords: Peak oil; Global warming; Economic growthx
2. Production logistics of fossil fuel
3. Global oil
4. Global gas
5. Global coal
6. Nuclear energy
7. Renewable energy
8. Energy and economic growth
9. An explicit energy-based economic growth formulation
10. Energy-economic projections
11. Global warming
12. Carbon emissions and climate response
13. Summary and conclusion
Fig. 7. Logistic curve assessment for global oil production (sourcedata: see Table 1).
Fig. 8. Global oil production trends and projections. One barrel of oil = 5.729 GJ (BP,2007) (source data: see Table 1).
Fig. 9. Logistic curve assessment for global gas production (source data: see Table 2).
Fig. 10. Global gas production trends and projections. One cubic metre ofgas = 0.0360 GJ (BP,2007) (source data: seeTable 2).
Fig. 12. Logistic curve assessment for global coal production (source data: see Table 3).
Fig. 13. Global coal production trends and projections (source data: see Table 3).
Fig. 15. Global nuclear energy trends and projections (source data for historical trend: BP,2007).
Fig. 16. Global renewable energy trends and projections source data: see Table 5).
Nel and Cooper(2009)ΙζιwImplications of fossil fuel constraints on economic growth and global warmingx©η