『Abstract
The aim of this paper is to provide an economic foundation for
bell shaped oil extraction trajectories, consistent with Hubbert's
peak oil model. There are several reasons why it is important
to get insight into the economic foundations of peak oil. As production
decisions are expected to depend on economic factors, a better
comprehension of the economic foundations of oil extraction behaviour
is fundamental to predict production and price over the coming
years. The investigation made in this paper helps us to get a
better understanding of the different mechanisms that may be at
work in the case of OPEC and non-OPEC producers. We show that
profitability is the main driver behind production plans. Changes
in profitability due to divergent trajectories between costs and
oil price may give rise to a Hubbert production curve. For this
result we do not need to introduce a demand or an exploration
effect as is generally assumed in the literature.
Keywords: Hubbert peak; Hotelling; shadow price; depletion effect』
Acknowledgments
1. Introduction
2. The technical interpretation of Hubbert model
3. The economic interpretation of the Hubbert model
4. An intertemporal model reproducing Hubbert via cost
4.1. Analytical solution
The optimum where the inequality constraint is inactive
The optimum where the inequality constraint is active
4.2. Numerical simulations
5. Introducing stock depletion effects in costs
6. Limits to the approach and possible extensions
7. Conclusion
8. References