Gallagher,B.(2011): Peak oil analyzed with a logistic function and idealized Hubbert curve. Energy Policy, 39, 790-802.


 A logistic function is used to characterize peak and ultimate production of global crude oil and petroleum-derived liquid fuels. Annual oil production data were incrementally summed to construct a logistic curve in its initial phase. Using a curve-fitting approach, a population-growth logistic function was applied to complete the cumulative production curve. The simulated curve was then deconstructed into a set of annual oil production data producing an “idealized” Hubbert curve. An idealized Hubbert curve (IHC) is defined as having properties of production data resulting from a constant growth-rate under fixed resource limits. An IHC represents a potential production curve constructed from cumulative production data and provides a new perspective for estimating peak production periods and remaining resources. The IHC model data show that idealized peak oil production occurred in 2009 at 83.2 Mb/d (30.4 Gb/y). IHC simulations of truncated historical oil production data produced similar results and indicate that this methodology can be useful as a prediction tool.

Keywords: Peak oil; Logistic function; Hubbert curve』

1. Introduction
2. Premise
3. Methodology
 3.1. Spreadsheet
4. Annual and cumulative production data
5. Testing the IHC concept
6. Hubbert's peak versus an idealized Hubbert peak
7. Limitations
8. Summary of analyses
9. Results and discussion