『**Abstract**

A logistic function is used to characterize peak and ultimate
production of global crude oil and petroleum-derived liquid fuels.
Annual oil production data were incrementally summed to construct
a logistic curve in its initial phase. Using a curve-fitting approach,
a population-growth logistic function was applied to complete
the cumulative production curve. The simulated curve was then
deconstructed into a set of annual oil production data producing
an “idealized” Hubbert curve. An idealized Hubbert curve (IHC)
is defined as having properties of production data resulting from
a constant growth-rate under fixed resource limits. An IHC represents
a potential production curve constructed from cumulative production
data and provides a new perspective for estimating peak production
periods and remaining resources. The IHC model data show that
idealized peak oil production occurred in 2009 at 83.2 Mb/d (30.4
Gb/y). IHC simulations of truncated historical oil production
data produced similar results and indicate that this methodology
can be useful as a prediction tool.

Keywords: Peak oil; Logistic function; Hubbert curve』

**1. Introduction
2. Premise
3. Methodology
** 3.1. Spreadsheet

4. Annual and cumulative production data

5. Testing the IHC concept

6. Hubbert's peak versus an idealized Hubbert peak

7. Limitations

8. Summary of analyses

9. Results and discussion

References